Oil markets have won a surprise reprieve. 

It is unlikely to last.

石油市场获得了一次意外的喘息之机，但这好景恐怕不长

Photograph: Eyevine

文章摘要：

霍尔木兹海峡封锁，全球5%的石油供应瞬间蒸发。虽有美、中两国通过抛储与减需意外撑起“保护伞”，让市场呈现出一种诡异的平静，但这不过是风暴眼中的短暂喘息。随着库存见底与民粹政策抬头，一场真正的能源海啸或许几周后就会倾覆全球经济。

The largest supply shock in petroleum history is getting larger fast. Some 2bn barrels, or 5% of the world’s yearly oil supply, have already been lost because the Strait of Hormuz is shut. Every day it remains closed the deficit grows by 14m barrels. Since peace talks between America and Iran have stalled, a reopening still seems many days away.

石油史上规模最大的供应冲击正在迅速升级。由于霍尔木兹海峡关闭，约20亿桶石油（相当于全球年度供应量的5%）已经退出市场。每关闭一天，供应缺口就会增加1400万桶。鉴于美伊和谈陷入僵局，海峡重开之日似乎依然遥遥无期。

Yet oil markets look strangely calm. Brent crude futures, at $105 a barrel, have fallen from April highs of nearly $120. They remain below the peak of $129 in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. Spot prices have slid even more, implying that crude oil is more plentiful than it was earlier in the war. The surprising mini-glut is real—but do not take too much comfort from it. A full-blown energy disaster may be weeks away.

然而，石油市场表现得异常冷静。布伦特原油期货价格目前处于每桶105美元，较4月近120美元的高点有所回落，且仍低于2022年俄乌冲突后的129美元峰值。现货价格跌幅更大，暗示原油供应甚至比战争初期还要充裕。这种令人惊诧的“微型过剩”确是事实——但切莫以此自慰，一场全面的能源灾难可能只需数周便会降临。

Two unlikely saviours are shielding the world from catastrophe. One is America. Its exports of crude and refined products, net of imports, have surged to 9m barrels per day (b/d)—nearly 4m b/d above the level at the same time last year. That reflects the agility of America’s energy firms, which have harnessed their stocks, refineries and terminals to serve more high-paying customers abroad. It also confirms the usefulness of America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which the government began tapping in March. These extra barrels allowed shipments abroad to rise without crimping domestic supply.

两股意想不到的力量正充当“救世主”，保护世界免于灾难。其一是美国。其原油及精炼油品的净出口量已飙升至每日900万桶，比去年同期高出近400万桶。这既反映了美国能源企业的灵活性——它们正调动库存、炼厂和码头，以服务于海外那些出价更高的客户；也证实了美国战略石油储备（SPR）的效用，政府已从3月开始动用该储备。这些额外释放的油桶让出口激增的同时，不至于挤压国内供应。

The second accidental hero is China, which is importing 4.5m b/d less crude than a year ago. This reflects weaker consumer demand for dearer fuel. It also follows from the government’s decisions. Early in the war it banned refiners from exporting products and authorised them to draw on stocks. This reduced refineries’ demand for foreign oil.

第二个“偶然英雄”是中国。其原油进口量比一年前减少了每日450万桶。这既反映了在高昂油价面前消费者需求的萎缩，也源于政府的决策。在冲突初期，政府便禁止炼厂出口油品，并授权其动用库存。这降低了炼油厂对外国原油的需求。

This, plus demand-destroying rationing in poor countries, explains the placidity of crude markets. Yet if Hormuz stays closed, a storm will come—and then governments must avoid policies that make it more destructive.

以上因素，外加贫困国家因需求崩溃而实施的配给制，共同解释了原油市场的波澜不惊。然而，如果霍尔木兹海峡持续封闭，风暴终将到来——届时各国政府必须避免采取那些会加剧灾难的政策。

The world entered the war with oil stocks close to ten-year highs. As importers draw on reserves to offset lost Gulf supply, those could become emptier than ever by June. A buffer of near-record volumes of oil at sea—made available, in part, by higher Gulf exports before the war—has now largely been exhausted. Even American and Chinese national reserves will not last for ever, let alone the thin stocks of poor countries.

步入这场冲突时，全球石油库存接近十年高点。但随着进口国不断动用储备以抵消波斯湾供应的中断，这些库存到6月可能会见底。此前，由于开战前海湾地区出口量激增，海上曾积压了近乎创纪录的石油缓冲量，但如今这些也已基本耗尽。即便美中的国家储备也无法维系长久，更遑论那些库存单薄的贫困国家。

Soon, therefore, private stocks in the rich world will start being bled. Prices could then rise convulsively—reflecting both the low absolute level of inventories and their geographically uneven distribution. Refined products will be hit first. Trapped Gulf exports and cuts to refinery output elsewhere have already drained diesel, petrol and jet-fuel reserves, driving prices up far faster than crude’s. As stocks vanish, prices will have to rise still more to balance demand and supply.

因此，富裕国家的民间库存很快将开始被“放血”。届时，价格可能会出现抽风式上涨——这既反映了库存绝对值的低下，也反映了其地理分布的不均。精炼油品将首当其冲。海湾出口受阻加上其他地区炼厂减产，已经耗尽了柴油、汽油和航空煤油的储备，导致其价格涨幅远超原油。随着库存消失，价格必须进一步攀升以平衡供需。

The shock will intensify if China starts buying more crude. With nearly 1.2bn barrels in reserve it may, in theory, shun expensive imports for months. But it will also want to preserve a buffer, so it may return to the market.

如果中国开始增加原油采购，冲击将进一步加剧。理论上，凭借近12亿桶的储备，中国可以连续数月避开昂贵的进口。但考虑到维护缓冲量的需要，中国仍可能重返市场。

The other risk is that Donald Trump loses his nerve. He and other America First populists will bridle at exports that soar while domestic stocks dwindle—especially if this pushes petrol above $5 a gallon. In 2022 such price rises hurt both drivers’ pockets and Joe Biden’s approval ratings as president. Mr Trump’s administration is already debating a possible export ban. Were it to enforce one, global prices would rise fast. America’s coasts, which rely on imports, would be hurt by higher import prices and any retaliation from other exporters. Its refiners, seeing margins crushed, would cut output.

另一个风险在于特朗普可能会“丧失定力”。他及其他“美国优先”的民粹主义者会对出口激增而国内库存锐减的局面感到愤怒——尤其是如果这导致油价破了每加仑5美元。在2022年，此类涨价既掏空了司机的钱包，也重创了拜登的支持率。特朗普政府已在讨论可能的出口禁令。一旦付诸实施，全球油价将飞涨。依赖进口的美国沿海地区将遭受高进口价格和他国报复性措施的双重打击。而利润空间被压垮的美国炼油商则会削减产量。

The world economy has found some calm in the eye of the energy storm. But it is far from harbour. A reckless decision by America could all too easily capsize it.

全球经济在能源风暴眼中寻得了一丝平静。但它远未驶入避风港。美国一个鲁莽的决定，便能轻而易举地让这艘大船倾覆。

📚专有名词与常见搭配

 (Glossary & Collocations)

• Surprise reprieve: 意外的喘息之机/暂缓（原意为死刑暂缓执行）

• Net of imports: 扣除进口后（净值）

• Agility: 灵活性、敏捷性

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): 战略石油储备

• Crimp: 束缚、限制（这里指减少、挤压）

• Demand-destroying rationing: 破坏需求的配给制（指价格太高导致人们被迫不用或政府限制使用）

• Bled: 放血、抽干（指库存持续减少）

• Lose one’s nerve: 丧失勇气、定力、惊慌失措

• Bridle at: 对……表示愤怒/反感

• Capsize: 翻船、倾覆

🤔长难句分析 (Complex Analysis)

1. That reflects the agility of America’s energy firms, which have harnessed their stocks, refineries and terminals to serve more high-paying customers abroad.

类型：which 引导的非限制性定语从句。

解析：which 修饰 “energy firms”，解释了这些公司如何展现灵活性。这里用了 harness（利用/驾驭）一词，生动地说明企业在调动一切资源追逐利润。

2. He and other America First populists will bridle at exports that soar while domestic stocks dwindle—especially if this pushes petrol above $5 a gallon.

类型：that 引导定语从句 + while 引导对比状语 + if 引导条件从句。

解析：结构分三层。第一层是 that soar 修饰 exports；第二层 while... 对比了“出口激增”与“库存缩减”的矛盾；第三层 if 给出触发民粹愤怒的底线（5美元油价）。

3. Were it to enforce one, global prices would rise fast.

类型： 虚拟语气 + 倒装。

解析：这是一个省略了 if 的虚拟语气（原句是 If it were to enforce one）。在《经济学人》中，倒装句常用于增加语气的严峻感或正式感。

✍️练习 (Translation Exercise)

请使用文中出现的句型或搭配，将下列句子翻译成英文：

1. 搭配造句： 考虑到经济下行，这家科技巨头正被迫动用其现金储备（draw on its reserves）。

2. 句型挑战（虚拟语气倒装）： 如果政府决定加税（enforce a tax hike），小微企业的利润空间（margins）将被压垮。

（提示：第2题可参考文中 “Were it to enforce one…” 和 “seeing margins crushed” 的表达）