Housing in America 

美国住房市场

Home economics 

住房经济学

What economists can learn from the world’s biggest DIY store. 

经济学家从全球最大的DIY商店得知的信息。 

Home Depot is no ordinary retailer, but a barometer for America’s housing market. 

家得宝不是普通零售商，而是美国住房市场的晴雨表。(注:家得宝售卖家居装饰建材，消费者购买材料后可以DIY家具等。) 

Comparable sales at the world’s biggest DIY chain fell sharply in 2007, before many on Wall Street cottoned on to the coming housing crash. 

在华尔街的许多人意识到房地产崩盘即将到来之前，这家全世界最大的DIY连锁店的同店销售额就在2007年急剧下滑。 

More recently its revenues surged along with the boom that followed the covid-19 pandemic. 

最近几年，其收益随着新冠疫情后的繁荣而激增。 

Since then Home Depot has again felt the strain. 

自那以后，家得宝再次感受到压力。 

Though home prices have held up, the home-buying frenzy subsequently ground to a halt. 

虽然房价保持坚挺，但是购房热潮随后逐渐陷入停滞。 

Annual transactions fell by 20% in 2022 and by 30% in 2023. 

2022年的年度交易额下降了20%,2023年下降了30%。 

Mortgage rates have fallen from their peak in 2023, but sales of existing homes over the past two years have been the lowest in three decades, according to the National Association of Realtors. 

房贷利率已从2023年的峰值回落，但是根据全美房地产经纪人协会的数据，过去两年现有房屋的销售量是三十年来的最低值。 

Speaking in April, Richard McPhail, Home Depot’s finance chief, put it plainly: “We have never seen housing activity this slow for this long.” 

家得宝首席财务官理查德·麦克菲尔在4月份直言不讳地表示:“我们从未见过住房市场如此长时间地陷入低迷。” 

All this means fewer DIY projects. 

这一切意味着更少的DIY项目。 

Favourable currency exchange rates boosted revenue growth in Home Depot’s latest fiscal quarter, for which it released results on May 19th. 

有利的货币汇率提振了家得宝最新财季的收益增长，家得宝于5月19日公布了该季度的结果。 

But strip these out and annual in America have been falling or flat for three years. 

但是剔除这些因素后，家得宝美国的年销售额三年来一直在下降或持平。 

Customer transactions last year were 9% below a peak in 2021. 

去年的客户交易量比2021年的峰值下降了9%。 

Worse, there is little sign of improvement. 

更糟的是，几乎没有改善的迹象。 

Home Depot expects comparable sales to be unchanged in 2026, with a best-case scenario of 2% growth. 

家得宝预计2026年同店销售额将保持不变，最佳情况是可实现2%的增长。 

Its share price has plunged by a quarter from a peak last year. 

其股价从去年的峰值下跌了四分之一。 

Shoppers still snap up smaller like gardening tools and paint. 

购物者仍然抢购园艺工具和油漆等小件商品。 

But they are not starting large projects such as kitchen and bathroom renovations-because the housing market is gridlocked. 

但是他们并不启动大型项目，比如厨房和浴室翻新，这是因为住房市场陷入了停滞。 

Dearer mortgages are partly to blame. 

房贷更高是部分原因。 

Homeowners with pandemic-era fixed rates of 3% or below are reluctant to sell and abandon them, now that the average rate on a new 30-year mortgage has risen to nearly 6.5%. 

疫情期间的固定利率是3%或更低，这些房主不愿卖房并放弃这一利率，因为新的30年期房贷平均利率已升至近6.5%。 

Such rates also put first-time buyers off. 

这种高利率也让初次购房者望而却步。 

More than half of outstanding mortgages still had rates of 4% or less in the third quarter of 2025. 

超过一半的未偿还房贷在2025年第三季度的利率仍为4%或更低。 

The more expensive mortgages are, the less buyers can afford to pay for a house. 

房贷越贵，买家能负担的房价就越低。 

But”sellers are extremely reluctant to realise losses from their homes,” says Tarun Ramadorai of the London School of Economics. 

伦敦经济学院的塔伦·拉马多拉伊说，但是“卖家极不愿意亏钱卖房”。 

This has also frozen the housing market in Britain, where transactions remain subdued. 

这也使得英国的住房市场陷入停滞，交易活动持续低迷。 

In both places, homeowners loss-aversion has contributed to prices not moving much. 

在英国和美国，房主的厌恶损失心理都导致房价没有太大变动。 

Instead, their unwillingness to sell at a loss has caused sale volumes to collapse. 

相反，他们不愿亏钱卖房，导致销售量大幅下滑。 

Before the Iran war, America’s housing market looked ripe for a recovery. 

在伊朗战争之前，美国住房市场看起来已为复苏做好了准备。 

Unemployment was low, existing homeowners were sitting on near-record equity and affordability was improving, in part because of rising incomes. 

当时失率很低，现有房主的房产净值接近历史最高水平，住房可负担性也正在改善(部分原因是收入在增长)。 

But the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent energy prices rocketing, threatening to drive up inflation and, in turn, mortgage rates. 

但是霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致能源价格飙升，威胁着要推高通货膨胀，进而推高房贷利率。 

And so the housing market remains on ice. 

因此房地产市场依然处于冻结状态。 

What might prompt a thaw? 

什么可能促使解冻？ 

Some homeowners have little option but to sell up: those undergoing divorces, for instance, or moving for work. 

一些房主几乎没有选择，只能卖掉房子:例如正在离婚的人，或者因工作调动而搬家的人。 

Home Depot, however, cannot rely on this trickle of transactions. 

然而，家得宝不能靠这种小规模交易而存活。 

So it is instead courting builders, who tend to spend more than the DIY crowd and now account for half of its revenue. 

因此家得宝转而向建筑商示好，建筑商往往比DIY群体花费更多，目前占家得宝收益的一半。 

Over the past few years, the firm has spent over $30bn acquiring wholesale distributors that cater to professional contractors. 

在过去几年，家得宝已花费超过300亿美元获取批发分销商，这些分销商专门服务专业承包商。 

But for now, plenty of its tills remain empty-and offer a warning that America’s housing market is broken. 

但目前，家得宝的许多收银机依然空空如也， 这也警示着美国住房市场已然失灵。