欧洲电力市场产能过剩 | 经济学人


欧洲电力市场产能过剩 | 经济学人

📖 导读

当欧洲监管机构几年前调整欧洲大陆的批发电力市场时,他们设置了价格下限,以规避交易故障。每兆瓦时负€500(约580美元),更像是设置了价格“地下室”。

对于经济学家来说,零这个数字并没有特别之处。如果某个价格需要为负才能出清市场,那就随它去吧。

📝 原文阅读与笔记

European electricity markets have too much power

欧洲电力市场产能过剩

They must learn to deal with it

他们必须学会应对它

原文:WHEN EUROPEAN regulators were tweaking the continent’s wholesale electricity markets some years ago, they added a price floor to short-circuit trading snafus. At minus €500 ($580) per megawatt-hour (MWh), it was more of a price basement. It was set so low in order to be triggered only in exceptional circumstances. May 1st, when bright sunshine and strong winds met low demand for electricity from Europeans enjoying a public holiday, may have seemed pretty ordinary. Yet the wholesale electricity price in Germany reached minus €499 per MWh. If this translated into retail prices, you would pocket €50 for charging your electric car.

译文:当欧洲监管机构几年前调整欧洲大陆的批发电力市场时,他们设置了价格下限,以规避交易故障。每兆瓦时负€500(约580美元),更像是设置了价格“地下室”。之所以设定得如此之低,是为了只在极端情况下才会触发。5月1日,阳光明媚,风力强劲,而享受公共假日的欧洲人用电需求很低,这看似相当寻常。然而,德国批发电力价格却达到了负€499/兆瓦时。如果这反映到零售价格上,你给电动汽车充一次电反而能赚€50。

📚 词汇解析:

  • short-circuit
     短路
  • megawatt-hour
     兆瓦时
  • circumstances
     情况

原文:For economists, the number zero is not particularly special. If a price needs to be negative to clear a market, so be it. Solar plants and wind farms produce power at near zero marginal cost when the sun is shining and wind blowing. But because that is not necessarily when people need power, and because it is costly to stop producing, they may need to pay someone to absorb the excess electricity. As more renewables plugged into Europe’s grids in the past few years, the number of hours during which buyers in the wholesale market, such as utilities and heavy industry, were paid to take electricity started rising.

译文:对于经济学家来说,零这个数字并没有特别之处。如果某个价格需要为负才能出清市场,那就随它去吧。太阳能发电厂和风力发电厂在阳光充足、风力强劲时,发电的边际成本接近于零。但由于这不一定是人们需要电力的时候,而且停止发电成本高昂,他们可能需要花钱请人消纳多余的电力。随着过去几年更多可再生能源接入欧洲电网,批发市场(如公用事业和重工业)的买家获得付费以吸纳电力的时数开始增加。

📚 词汇解析:

  • notwithstanding
     (v./n.) 尽管
  • electricity
     (n.) 电
  • california
     加利福尼亚

原文:Obviously, negative prices offer a strong incentive for anyone who can store electricity and then sell it for more than nothing when demand returns. In sunny California, where batteries are replacing fossil energy to cover the evening demand peaks after charging during the day, the number of hours with negative prices started to decline last year. Across much of Europe, May Day notwithstanding, it is beginning to plateau (see chart 1). The market, at last, is adapting.

译文:很明显,负电价为能够储存电力的人提供了强有力的激励——当需求回升时,他们可以将电力以高于零的价格卖出。在阳光充足的加州,电池正在取代化石能源来应对白天充电后的晚间需求高峰,负电价持续的小时数去年已开始下降。在欧洲大部分地区,尽管受到五一假期的影响,负电价也开始趋于平稳(见图表1)。市场终于开始适应了。

📚 词汇解析:

  • successfully
     (adv.) 成功地
  • electricity
     (n.) 电
  • consultancy
     咨询业

原文:Europe’s installed battery capacity rose by 33,000MWh in 2025, to 90,000MWh or so (see chart 2). This is enough to store as much energy as all of Europe, including Britain, generates on average every quarter of an hour. BloombergNEF, a research firm, forecasts that capacity will rise by another 55,000MWh this year, enough to absorb roughly another ten minutes’ worth.

译文:2025年欧洲电池装机容量将增加33,000MWh,达到90,000MWh左右(见图2)。这足以储存包括英国在内的整个欧洲平均每刻钟产生的能量。研究公司 BloombergNEF 预测,今年容量将再增加 55,000MWh,足以再吸收大约 10 分钟的电量。


原文:End electricity use is also being successfully shifted into the cheaper hours of the day. Dynamic tariffs, which better reflect prices on wholesale markets, are becoming more popular, especially with owners of heat pumps and electric vehicles. Since January 2025 German providers have been required to offer customers at least one dynamic tariff. One Danish study found that though regular households mostly do not adjust demand to varying prices, those that use lots of electricity do. Another study that looked at German data from 2015-19, when those exposed to variable prices were mostly heavy users such as industry, found that price changes of about €25 per MWh led to shifts in demand of about 4%. A recent analysis by McKinsey, a consultancy, reckons that commercial and industrial consumers in Europe could save €8bn a year by 2030 if they made use of varying prices.

译文:终端用电也在成功地被转移到一天中更便宜的时段。能更好地反映批发市场电价的动态电价正变得越来越受欢迎,尤其是在热泵和电动汽车车主群体中。自2025年1月起,德国供应商被要求向客户提供至少一种动态电价。丹麦一项研究发现,虽然普通家庭大多不会根据电价变化调整需求,但用电量大的家庭会。另一项研究分析了2015-19年的德国数据,当时接触可变电价的主要是工业等重度用户,发现每兆瓦时约25欧元的价格变化会导致需求变化约4%。咨询公司麦肯锡的一项最新分析估计,如果欧洲工商业消费者利用电价变化,到2030年每年可节省80亿欧元。


原文:Electrons can move across space as well as across time. That requires strong grids. Europe is belatedly getting serious about expanding these. A new cable installed last year between Sweden and Finland is one factor explaining why hours of negative prices are, California-like, already declining in both countries. The Bay of Biscay interconnector between France and Spain is under construction and due to be completed by 2028. In 2025 Germany approved plans for 2,000km of new power lines, an increase of 45% from the year before.

译文:电子可以穿越空间,也可以穿越时间。这需要强大的电网。欧洲姗姗来迟,开始认真扩展这些基础设施。去年在瑞典和芬兰之间安装的一条新电缆,是解释两国负电价时段像加州一样已经在减少的因素之一。法国与西班牙之间的比斯开湾互联线路正在建设中,计划于2028年完工。2025年,德国批准了新建2000公里输电线路的计划,比前一年增加了45%。


原文:So far in 2026 only 40 hours have been priced below minus €50 per MWh in Germany, to the relief of grid operators (who are on the hook there). Spain has had none. As the market continues to adjust, wholesale prices near zero will become more common. And with more variable tariffs, people’s electricity bills will reflect this. As they face rising inflation—which reached an annual 3.2% in the euro zone in May, owing to high oil prices—Europeans can draw comfort from that sunny prospect.■

译文:截至2026年目前,德国仅有40小时的电价低于负50欧元/兆瓦时,这让电网运营商松了口气(毕竟这笔费用由他们承担)。西班牙则完全没有这种情况。随着市场持续调整,接近零的批发价格将变得更加常见。随着更多可变电价的普及,民众的电费账单也将反映这一点。面对不断上升的通胀——5月份欧元区达到年化3.2%,缘于油价高企——欧洲人或许能从前述的光明前景中获得些许慰藉。■

🔬 重点长难句解析

句子 1

原文:As more renewables plugged into Europe’s grids in the past few years, the number of hours during which buyers in the wholesale market, such as utilities and heavy industry, were paid to take electricity started rising.

结构:包含现在分词短语;包含过去分词短语

要点:分词短语作定语或状语,需确定修饰对象

翻译技巧:定语从句可译为独立分句或’的’字结构

句子 2

原文:Another study that looked at German data from 2015-19, when those exposed to variable prices were mostly heavy users such as industry, found that price changes of about €25 per MWh led to shifts in demand of about 4%.

结构:可能包含 that 引导的从句;包含过去分词短语;含 3 个从句嵌套

要点:主句谓语: were mostly;识别从句与主句的逻辑关系

翻译技巧:that 从句注意与先行词的呼应

✍️ 笔译实战练习

练习一:中译英

题目:几年前,欧洲监管机构在微调欧洲大陆的批发电力市场时,增设了价格下限,以防止交易故障。

提示词:主干谓语、信息增量、语体一致

参考译文:WHEN EUROPEAN regulators were tweaking the continent’s wholesale electricity markets some years ago, they added a price floor to short-circuit trading snafus.

练习二:英译中

题目:As more renewables plugged into Europe’s grids in the past few years, the number of hours during which buyers in the wholesale market, such as utilities and heavy industry, were paid to take electricity started rising.

提示词:句法层级、因果关系、语义重心

参考译文:在过去几年,随着欧洲电网接入更多可再生能源,批发市场买家(如公用事业和重工业)被付费使用电力的时数开始增加。

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