Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster

Scenarios now range from bad to awful

现在的情况从糟糕到可怕

TRADERS OF OIL futures are a sunny bunch. On April 17th, after Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”, the price of Brent crude fell by 10%, to $90 a barrel. Within hours Iran reversed course and attacked an Indian tanker. The next trading day the global benchmark rose by just 5%. It has gone back up above $100 since but remains around $15 below its high in late March, even though an American blockade has trapped even more oil in the Gulf.

石油期货交易员是一群阳光明媚的人。4月17日，伊朗外交部长宣布霍尔木兹海峡“完全开放”后，布伦特原油价格下跌10%，至每桶90美元。几小时后，伊朗改变航线，袭击了一艘印度油轮。接下来的一个交易日，全球基准指数仅上涨了5%。自那以后，油价回升到100美元以上，但仍比3月底的高点低15美元左右，尽管美国的封锁使更多的石油困在海湾地区。

Fifty days into the Iran war the world has lost 550m barrels of Gulf crude—nearly 2% of last year’s global output. Every month Hormuz stays closed, the world misses out on 7m tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), worth 2% of its annual supply. Yet in Western countries, which host the largest futures markets, pain remains limited. Petrol is a bit pricier, but most households can still afford to drive. Trucks keep trucking. Planes continue to fly. Fuel stocks remain close to pre-war levels.

伊朗战争爆发50天以来，世界已经损失了5.5亿桶海湾原油——几乎是去年全球产量的2%。霍尔木兹海峡每关闭一个月，全球就会失去700万吨液化天然气（LNG），占全球年供应量的2%。然而，在拥有最大期货市场的西方国家，痛苦仍然有限。汽油稍微贵了一点，但大多数家庭仍然有能力开车。卡车不停地开着。飞机继续飞行。燃料库存仍接近战前水平。

This comforting picture is deeply misleading. By April 20th the last few oil tankers to cross Hormuz before the war began reached their destinations, in Malaysia and California. There is no buffer left to protect the world from the supply shock, at a time of the year when demand from holiday drivers starts to pick up.

这种令人欣慰的图景具有严重的误导性。到4月20日，战争开始前通过霍尔木兹海峡的最后几艘油轮到达了目的地——马来西亚和加利福尼亚。在每年的这个时候，假日司机的需求开始回升，没有任何缓冲来保护世界免受供应冲击。

To gauge how close the world is to energy catastrophe, The Economist has collected a dashboard of indicators. It shows grave harm has already been done. Worse, without a reopening costs could soar, triggering events that cause the fuel system to seize up. A reopening of the strait now would—just—avoid calamity. But some additional pain is already inevitable.

为了衡量世界离能源灾难还有多远，《经济学人》收集了一系列指标。这表明已经造成了严重的伤害。更糟糕的是，如果不重新开放，成本可能会飙升，引发导致燃料系统瘫痪的事件。现在重新开放海峡可能会避免灾难。但一些额外的痛苦已经不可避免。

Three factors are pushing the world towards the cliff edge. Oil cargoes available to buy are drying up. Refineries are slashing output of fuel. And demand remains artificially high, especially in Europe. Something big must give somewhere large for energy markets to balance.

三个因素正在把世界推向悬崖边缘。可供购买的石油正在枯竭。炼油厂正在削减燃料产量。而且需求仍然人为地高企，尤其是在欧洲。要想让能源市场达到平衡，必须有一个大的举措。

Take trade first. One reason the largest supply shock in petroleum history has not triggered global panic is that a near-record amount of oil was already at sea when the war started. As American warships set sail for the Gulf in February, countries there cranked up exports. After the latest deliveries, those excess seaborne stocks are now exhausted. So are most cargoes of Iranian and Russian oil, which were loitering at sea but found buyers after America eased sanctions on the two countries. Total volumes on water have fallen at record speed. For jet fuel and petrol they are well below historical norms, and possibly close to the minimum required for seaborne trade to function.

先说贸易。石油历史上最大的供应冲击没有引发全球恐慌的一个原因是，在战争开始时，海上的石油储量已经接近创纪录水平。随着美国军舰在2月份启航前往海湾地区，海湾国家加快了出口。在最近一次交付后，这些多余的海运库存现在已经耗尽。伊朗和俄罗斯的大部分石油也是如此，这些石油在海上徘徊，但在美国放松对这两个国家的制裁后找到了买家。水运总量以创纪录的速度下降。对于喷气燃料和汽油而言，它们远低于历史标准，可能接近海运贸易正常运转所需的最低水平。

This leaves Asia, which used to receive four-fifths of Gulf exports, in a particular bind. Commercial inventories in a few other Asian countries are running out. South Korea is due to taper releases from its strategic reserves in the coming days. Japan’s will be exhausted in May. Crude stocks in Asia excluding China fell by 67m barrels, or 11%, in the month to April 19th, according to Kayrros, a firm that estimates inventories using satellite imaging.

这使得曾经接收海湾五分之四出口的亚洲陷入了特别的困境。其他几个亚洲国家的商业库存正在耗尽。韩国将在未来几天逐步减少其战略储备的释放。日本的储备将在5月份耗尽。根据Kayrros（一家利用卫星图像估算库存的公司）的数据，截至4月19日，亚洲（不包括中国）的原油库存下降了6700万桶，降幅为11%。

A shortfall of raw materials has forced Asian refiners to cut throughput by over 3m barrels a day (b/d), or 10% of their combined capacity. That could accelerate to 5m b/d in May and, if the strait stays shut, 10m b/d in July, says Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities, a data firm. All this compounds shortages created by the loss of Gulf exports of finished fuel, on which Asia also relies.

原材料短缺迫使亚洲炼油商削减了超过300万桶/天的产量，占其总产能的10%。数据公司斯巴达商品公司的尼尔•克罗斯比表示，5月份的日产量可能会增加到500万桶，如果霍尔木兹海峡继续关闭，7月份的日产量将达到1000万桶。所有这些都加剧了海湾地区成品油出口减少造成的短缺，而亚洲也依赖成品油出口。

Refined-fuel prices are already high. In Asian spot markets, petrol nears $120 a barrel, diesel $175 and jet fuel $200, up from $80, $93 and $94, respectively, before the war. Demand is adjusting, partly by government decree. Seven countries have imposed work-from-home mandates and at least five are rationing vehicle fuel. High prices are doing their bit, too. Small miners, fisheries and other firms without adequate diesel stocks are working part-time. Unable to afford naphtha, another oil product, some plastic-makers have shut units. The combination of state and self-imposed rationing may cause Asian crude demand to shrink by nearly 3m b/d in April, compared with February.

成品油价格已经很高了。在亚洲现货市场，汽油、柴油和航空燃油的价格分别接近每桶120美元、175美元和200美元，高于战前的80美元、93美元和94美元。需求正在调整，部分原因是政府的法令。有7个国家强制要求员工在家工作，至少有5个国家实行汽车燃油配给。高价格也在发挥作用。没有足够柴油库存的小型矿工、渔业和其他公司只能兼职工作。由于买不起另一种石油产品石脑油，一些塑料生产商已经关闭了工厂。与2月份相比，国家和自行实施的定量供应可能导致亚洲4月份原油需求减少近300万桶/日。

Europe has so far avoided demand destruction, as governments try to preserve citizens’ purchasing power. Of the 27 European Union countries, 16 are using taxpayer money or cutting fuel taxes to shield consumers from higher prices. European refiners have thus barely slashed production. But, like their Asian counterparts, they, too, must buy crude at a much higher cost than Brent futures suggest.

到目前为止，由于各国政府试图保持公民的购买力，欧洲避免了需求破坏。在27个欧盟国家中，有16个国家正在动用纳税人的钱或削减燃油税，以保护消费者免受油价上涨的影响。因此，欧洲炼油商几乎没有削减产量。但与亚洲同行一样，它们也必须以远高于布伦特原油期货价格的价格购买原油。

A better gauge is Dated Brent, the price for real cargoes delivered in the next few weeks. The spread between the two—usually $1-2— widened greatly in April, reflecting fears of near-term shortages, according to Platts, which produces the benchmark. It has narrowed since but remains bigger than usual (and does not include eye-watering freight rates and other costs).

一个更好的衡量标准是远期布伦特原油，即未来几周交付的实际货物的价格。根据生产基准的普氏能源资讯（Platts）的数据，这两种价格之间的价差（通常为1-2美元）在4月份大幅扩大，反映出对近期短缺的担忧。自那以后，价差有所收窄，但仍比平时大（不包括令人瞠目结舌的运费和其他成本）。

Raw material at $130-150 a barrel has pushed European refiners’ margins into the red, reckons Benedict George of Argus Media, a price-reporting agency. Extreme backwardation—when commodity spot prices are much higher than those for futures—crush their profits: they must pay up for crude now but sell their products at lower futures prices. Before long they will need to cut output.

价格报告机构阿格斯传媒（Argus Media）的Benedict George认为，每桶130-150美元的原材料价格已经将欧洲炼油商的利润推至亏损状态。当商品现货价格远高于期货价格时，极端的现货溢价会挤压他们的利润：他们现在必须支付更高的原油价格，但以更低的期货价格出售他们的产品。不久之后，它们将需要削减产量。

If Europe keeps subsidising consumption, markets will get more out of whack. For one thing, prices for products will keep rising. America, where demand tends to jump in a period of summer road trips, will push them further. Competition for LNG, shortage of which was mostly absorbed by Asian consumers’ self-deprivation and a switch to coal, will also increase when Europe starts restocking gas for the winter.

如果欧洲继续补贴消费，市场将变得更加不正常。一方面，产品价格将持续上涨。在美国，夏季自驾游的需求往往会激增，这将进一步推动这一趋势。随着欧洲开始为冬季补充天然气，对液化天然气的竞争也将加剧。亚洲消费者的自我剥夺和转向煤炭，主要抵消了液化天然气的短缺。

Fast-depleting stocks make matters worse. Europe’s reserves of jet fuel cover some 50 days of consumption, their typical level. But modelling by Michelle Brouhard of Kpler, a data firm, for The Economist shows that European stocks will fall precipitously if Hormuz flows do not normalise by June. Those in other importing regions may disappear even faster. The outlook could worsen if America, seeking to tame domestic prices, bans exports of refined products, which have risen by nearly half since the start of the war.

快速消耗的库存使情况变得更糟。欧洲的航空燃料储备可以满足50天的消费，这是他们的典型水平。但数据公司Kpler的米歇尔•布劳哈德为《经济学人》制作的模型显示，如果到6月份霍尔木兹海峡的流量不能恢复正常，欧洲股市将急剧下跌。其他进口地区的石油可能消失得更快。如果美国为了抑制国内价格，禁止精炼产品的出口，那么前景可能会恶化。自战争开始以来，精炼产品的出口已经上涨了近一半。

Futures markets are in denial about all this. Even if Hormuz reopened today, it would take months for Gulf crude output, shipping and refining to resume in full. Saad Rahim of Trafigura, a trader, thinks a cumulative loss of 1.5bn Gulf barrels, or 5% of annual global output, is almost unavoidable. If the strait stays closed, it could easily reach double that. The last time oil demand fell by 10% in short order was during the covid-19 lockdowns of 2020, a shock that also brought about a fall in world GDP of more than 3%. The time to avoid a similar tumble is running out. ■

期货市场否认了这一切。即使霍尔木兹海峡今天重新开放，海湾地区的原油生产、航运和炼油也需要几个月的时间才能全面恢复。托克贸易商Saad Rahim认为，海湾地区累计损失15亿桶石油，占全球年产量的5%，这几乎是不可避免的。如果海峡继续关闭，这个数字很容易达到两倍。上一次石油需求在短期内下降10%是在2020年covid-19封锁期间，这一冲击也导致全球GDP下降超过3%。避免类似暴跌的时间已经不多了。

The Economists, April 252026，Time’s up

（译文仅供参考）