经济学人|稳定币市场太稳定了
The stablecoin market has got too stable
Rapid growth in dollar-backed crypto has stalled
美元支持的加密货币的快速增长已经停滞
STABLECOINS ARE, to proponents, the respectable face of crypto. In contrast to volatile bitcoin, let alone speculative meme coins, they should be backed by holdings of Treasury bills or other dollar-denominated assets. On paper, this makes them a safer store of value than many fiat currencies and a more viable means of payment than other crypto monies, whose price can swing wildly day to day. They should also fuel demand for Treasuries, making it easier for America to finance its budget deficits.
对于支持者来说，稳定币是加密货币的体面面孔。与波动性较大的比特币（更不用说投机性的表情包币了）不同，它们应该得到美国国债或其他美元计价资产的支持。从理论上讲，这使它们成为比许多法定货币更安全的价值储存手段，也是比其他加密货币更可行的支付手段，后者的价格每天都可能大幅波动。它们还会刺激对国债的需求，使美国更容易为其预算赤字融资。
President Donald Trump, whose family has extensive crypto interests and who has issued meme coins himself, is a fan. So are lawmakers. Last July Congress passed the Genius Act, regulating stablecoins in America. In November Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, predicted the stablecoin market, then worth some $300bn, could grow ten-fold by 2030. In February Standard Chartered, a sober bank, forecast that it could be worth $2trn by the end of 2028.
唐纳德·特朗普总统的家人对加密货币有着广泛的兴趣，他自己也发行过表情包币。立法者也是如此。去年7月，国会通过了《天才法案》（Genius Act），对美国的稳定币进行监管。去年11月，财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）预测，到2030年，当时价值约3000亿美元的稳定币市场可能会增长10倍。今年2月，一家冷静的银行渣打银行预测，到2028年底，这一数字可能达到2万亿美元。
This prospect spooked America’s banks. That is because a loophole in the law lets stablecoins offer a deposit-like yield without bank-like regulatory burden. The American Bankers Association, an industry group, warned that a $2trn market for stablecoins, virtually all of it dollar-pegged, could lead to a 10% decline in bank deposits. This would raise the average funding cost for lenders by about a quarter of a percentage point, they said, crimping their profits and driving up interest rates on all manner of loans for everyone else.
这种前景吓坏了美国的银行。这是因为法律上的一个漏洞让稳定币在没有银行监管负担的情况下提供类似存款的收益。行业组织美国银行家协会（American Bankers Association）警告称，规模达2万亿美元的稳定币市场（几乎全部与美元挂钩）可能导致银行存款减少10%。他们表示，这将使贷款机构的平均融资成本提高约0.25个百分点，从而影响它们的利润，并推高其他所有人的各种贷款利率。
Bankers and stablecoin issuers have since been locked in a fight over the final shape of a follow-up bill, the Clarity Act. The House of Representatives passed its more restrictive version last July. The Senate is preparing to vote on its (slightly more permissive) text in the next few weeks. Yet as the battle comes to a head, the bankers and their crypto rivals suddenly have much less to fight over.
此后，银行家和稳定币发行人一直在为后续法案《清晰法案》（Clarity Act）的最终形式而争执不休。去年7月，众议院通过了更为严格的版本。参议院正准备在接下来的几周内对其（稍微宽松一点的）文本进行投票。然而，随着这场战斗进入白热化阶段，银行家和他们的加密货币竞争对手之间的争斗突然少了很多。
After growing by 30% in the six months to late October, total stablecoin assets have barely budged. That is better than bitcoin, whose market value has plunged from $2.3trn to $1.6trn. Still, it is hardly the stuff of a financial revolution.
在截至10月底的六个月里增长了30%之后，稳定币的总资产几乎没有变化。这比比特币好，比特币的市值已从2.3万亿美元暴跌至1.6万亿美元。不过，这很难说是一场金融革命。
Announcements of new stablecoin experiments and products have not been explosive, either. In October ten big banks from America, Britain, Canada, Europe and Japan formed a group “to explore” if stablecoins have merit. The exploration has yet to lead to discoveries. Rumoured stablecoins from retailers such as Walmart and Amazon have remained rumours.
新的稳定币实验和产品的公告也没有爆炸性的增长。10月，来自美国、英国、加拿大、欧洲和日本的十家大银行组成了一个小组，“探索”稳定币是否有价值。这次勘探尚未有任何发现。来自沃尔玛和亚马逊等零售商的稳定币传言仍然是谣言。
One explanation for stablecoins’ excessive stability concerns regulation. The Genius Act offered some certainty in that regard but also, as the yield loophole shows, left many things hazy. Even before the Clarity Act clears it all up, financial rule-makers are tightening the screws. Mr Bessent’s bullishness notwithstanding, this month his department released a proposal that would treat stablecoin issuers as financial institutions for the purposes of anti-money-laundering and know-your-customer laws. This means adopting the same onerous monitoring and compliance procedures as banks, adding to the cost of launching and managing a new coin.
稳定币过度稳定的一个解释与监管有关。《天才法案》在这方面提供了一些确定性，但正如收益率漏洞所显示的那样，它也留下了许多模糊的东西。甚至在《清晰法案》（Clarity Act）澄清这一切之前，金融规则制定者就已经收紧了监管。尽管贝森特持乐观态度，但本月他的部门发布了一项提案，该提案将把稳定币发行人视为金融机构，以实施反洗钱和了解客户法。这意味着采用与银行相同的繁重监控和合规程序，增加了发行和管理新代币的成本。
Besides regulatory constraints on supply, stablecoins have been beset by a more serious problem: soft demand. In particular, their vaunted usefulness as a means of payment has failed to impress. Some businesses rely on them to enable payments outside office hours. So do some individuals in places where dollar banking is out of reach. But the lion’s share of transactions concerns trading and transfers associated with the crypto industry, not the real world.
除了对供应的监管限制外，稳定币还受到一个更严重的问题的困扰：需求疲软。特别是，它们作为一种支付手段所吹嘘的有用性并没有给人留下深刻印象。一些企业依靠它们来实现办公时间以外的支付。在美元银行业务无法触及的地方，一些个人也是如此。但大部分交易涉及与加密行业相关的交易和转移，而不是现实世界。
New research by Franklin Noll of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City finds that nearly half of all stablecoins play the role of crypto-trading assets. Less than 1% of stablecoins in circulation are used for payments. Boston Consulting Group and Allium, a blockchain-data firm, arrive at a similar figure looking at annual transaction values using stablecoins. As crypto enters one of its periodic winters amid a broader risk-off mood provoked by Mr Trump’s warmongering on trade, Iran and the Fed (which he wants to lower interest rates), stablecoins feel the chill.
堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的富兰克林·诺尔（Franklin Noll）的一项新研究发现，近一半的稳定币扮演着加密交易资产的角色。流通中的稳定币中只有不到1%用于支付。波士顿咨询集团（Boston Consulting Group）和区块链数据公司Allium通过研究稳定币的年度交易价值，得出了类似的数字。由于特朗普在贸易、伊朗和美联储（他希望降低利率）问题上的好战言论引发了更广泛的避险情绪，加密货币进入了周期性的寒冬之一，稳定币感到了寒意。
If investors embrace blockchain-based “tokenised” assets, which require something like stablecoins to trade, demand for dollar- pegged digital currencies may rise. But tokenised finance, worth $30bn today, is in its infancy. So long as stablecoins are tied at the hip to their unstable crypto cousins, bankers need not lose sleep. ■
如果投资者接受基于区块链的“代币化”资产（需要稳定币之类的东西进行交易），对与美元挂钩的数字货币的需求可能会上升。但如今价值300亿美元的代币化金融仍处于起步阶段。只要稳定币与不稳定的加密货币挂钩，银行家们就不必失眠。