Palm oil posted its first weekly gain in three weeks, rising 3.28%, on higher crude oil prices, stronger biodiesel economics, and ongoing Middle East geopolitical risk. CPO remains closely linked to energy markets, with elevated crude prices continuing to act as the main bullish driver.

MPOC expects palm oil to stay above 4,500 MYR/MT in the near term, underpinned by biodiesel demand, crude strength, and potential El Niño risks.

The physical palm complex also firmed. Malaysian RBD Palmolein FOB moved higher across forward months

Rapeseed & Canola

Rapeseed oil Dutch FOB strengthened, with May rising to ~ €1,177/MT, adding support to the wider vegetable oil complex.

Canadian canola futures also recovered strongly:

– May advanced to 725.4 CAD/MT (from 697.9 CAD/MT a week earlier)

– November reached 736 CAD/MT.

China’s rapeseed oil market remains one of the tightest segments globally, with stocks at only ~45% of last year’s levels.

Soybean & Soyoil Complex

CBOT soybeans remained broadly range-bound. May futures eased from around 11.67 to 11.59 $/bu, confirming the lack of strong bullish conviction in the bean market. Soymeal also softened, with May declining toward 320.6 $/st amid weaker feed demand.

The key story remains soyoil resilience. May CBOT soyoil held near 71.0 c/lb (around $1,566–1,580/MT), staying close to recent highs despite softer beans and meal.

South American FOB basis continues to send an important supply signal. Argentina’s basis weakened sharply to around -1,620 to -1,700 points, while FOB values climbed toward $1,205–1,223/MT. Brazil showed a similar pattern, with basis around -1,750 to -1,820 points and FOB near $1,165–1,181/MT.

Weaker basis reflects ample nearby supply and competitive exporter selling. For physical buyers, South America remains attractive.

Sunflower Oil

The sunflower oil complex is entering a transition phase, with short-term Black Sea support colliding with medium-term global supply expansion.

Russia sharply reduced its SFO export duty for May to 4,650 RUB/MT (from 16,222 RUB/MT in April). 

This is a clearly bearish policy signal as it:

– improves Russian export competitiveness

– encourages more aggressive FOB offers

– increases nearby Black Sea supply pressure

Current sunoil FOB indications:

– Ukraine ~$1,390–1,400/MT

– Russia ~$1,380 – 1,390/MT

– Europe ~$1,505/MT

– Argentina ~$1,300–1,320/MT

Argentina is moving toward record sunflower oil production, with combined sunoil and soyoil supplies projected up ~25% YoY. 

Russia’s duty cut has already shifted sentiment softer. However, Russian exports remain challenging this season. High sunflower seed prices, duties, and a strong RUB have squeezed crusher margins, forcing some exporters to slow or halt production.  If the RUB weakens, Russian sunoil competitivene butss would improve and export volumes could accelerate ahead of the new crop.