全球能源转型正在重塑劳动力市场格局。可再生能源扩张催生绿色就业，化石燃料退出却带来岗位流失、技能错配与区域衰退，碳定价等气候政策在引导减排的同时也改变着正规与非正规就业的结构性平衡。相关研究逐渐开始关注收益与成本在不同技能群体、不同地区间的分配机制，以及补偿性政策如何缓解转型带来的冲击。本期推送围绕“能源转型背景下的劳动力市场”这一主题，精选了10篇相关文献，以飨读者。

1. Do renewable energy investments create local jobs?

2.Not in my backyard? The local impact of wind and solar parks in Brazil

3.Overcoming five key challenges to make the energy transition a just labor transition

4.Skills-based and regionally explicit labor market exposure to the low-carbon transition in Europe

5.Climate policies, labor markets, and macroeconomic outcomes in emerging economies

6.Disentangling the greening of the labor market: The role of changing occupations and worker flows

7. Selective migration and regional decline: Evidence from coal country

8. Distributional labour challenges and opportunities for decarbonizing the US power system

9. Policies for rapid decarbonization with steady economic transition and employment creation

10.Location is a major barrier for transferring US fossil fuel employment to green jobs

Journal of Public Economics (2024)

Natalia Fabra (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

Eduardo Gutiérrez (Banco de España)

Aitor Lacuesta (Banco de España)

et al.

Globally, renewable energy projects often face local opposition despite the potential for job creation. Analyzing data from over 3,900 Spanish municipalities (2017–2021), we find that new jobs frequently do not remain in the host communities. Solar projects show stronger employment and unemployment multipliers compared to wind, reflecting differing task and skill requirements. Beyond the labor market impacts, residents benefit from the investments through greater public spending and increased per capita income. However, these effects are modest, particularly in the case of small to medium-sized plants.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105212

Energy Economics (2025)

Fabian Scheifele (Technical University of Berlin)

David Popp (Syracuse University)

Support from local citizens is important for the scale-up of renewable energy. We investigate the impact of utility-scale wind and solar parks on employment, GDP and public finances in Brazilian municipalities using a difference-in-differences design with matching. We find a positive employment impact of 1-1.3 jobs/MW in the 15 months preceding the commissioning of a solar park, when the park is under construction, but no impacts thereafter. For wind, we do not find any significant local employment effects. In the year after commissioning, GDP increases 23% for an average sized solar park and 12% for an average sized wind project. The impacts only decrease slightly in the following years. We also find significant persistent fiscal revenue impacts in wind compared to only a one-time tax revenue increase in solar at the time of construction. Our results provide different implications for policymakers that want to advocate for renewable energy in their towns. While for solar, the main benefit constitutes a short-term increase in low-skilled employment and public revenues, wind energy provides more long-term financial benefits but less local employment opportunities.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108481

Nature Communications (2025)

Luis Fernández Intriago (Environmental Defense Fund)

Shouvik Chakraborty (University of Massachusetts)

Alan Finkelstein Shapiro (Tufts University)

et al.

Shifting rapidly to a low-emissions global economy could severely disrupt workers’ livelihoods and their communities, exacerbating inequalities and perpetuating injustice. In a Just Labor Transition, strategic policies prepare workers for new jobs, enable inclusive decision-making with meaningful participation of workers and their representatives (including labor unions and other collective organizations), and secure social license for change.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62905-5

Joule (2025)

Felix Zaussinger (ETH Zurich)

Tobias S. Schmidt (ETH Zurich)

Florian Egli (ETH Zurich)

Transitioning to a low-carbon economy leads to shifts in the labor market. Yet, an effective policy response to such shifts is currently limited by knowledge gaps on the occupations at risk, their skill profiles, and their regional and sectoral distributions. Here, based on a novel classification of occupational exposure covering 3,008 occupations and 13,500 skills, we map the labor market exposure to the low-carbon transition across European regions and sectors using granular labor force surveys. We find that workers in high-carbon jobs lacking industry decarbonization options (at-risk jobs) have significantly fewer skills and that their skills are less transversal compared with low-carbon or neutral jobs, which may inhibit switching to in-demand occupations. Moreover, large variations between regions and sectors can be expected. For example, while at-risk jobs are most frequent in the mining sector in relative terms (11%), the manufacturing sector is most affected in absolute terms (0.9 M). Crucially, our approach shows that effective deployment of industry decarbonization options helps reduce the number of at-risk workers from 6.2 to 2.3 M. Finally, we show that, among European countries with available data, Germany and Hungary face a particular challenge with a disproportionately high share of their workforce at risk, combined with low public support via the EU Just Transition Fund. Responding to these national and regional labor market impacts is critical to avoid policy backlash.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2024.101813

Journal of Development Economics (2026)

Alan Finkelstein Shapiro (Tufts University)

Victoria Nuguer (Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México)

We study the labor market and macroeconomic effects of carbon taxation in the energy sector in emerging economies. We build a macro-search model with pollution externalities, endogenous green-energy adoption, salaried-firm entry, and endogenous self-employment. The carbon tax increases green technology adoption in the energy sector and the share of green energy. Under a baseline revenue recycling scheme that transfers the carbon tax revenue to households, the tax raises energy prices, leading to a reduction in salaried firm and job creation, and an increase in self-employment and labor force participation that ultimately generate welfare and GDP losses. Additional model experiments show that the presence of self-employment as a distinct employment category significantly amplifies these losses. However, endogenous green technology adoption can drastically limit the magnitude of these losses. Using the carbon tax revenue to support green energy investment can deliver a decline in energy prices and net welfare and output gains while reducing self-employment.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103782

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2026)

Ronald Bachmann (Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf)

Markus Janser (Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency)

Florian Lehmer (Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency)

et al.

The decarbonization of the economy has important consequences for the labor market and has also ignited fears of unemployment and job loss. These fears could lead to resistance against decarbonization. Yet, relatively little is known about the associated adjustment of the labor market. We therefore explore the growth in the greenness of employment in Germany between 2012 and 2022 using a text-mining approach applied to task descriptions of occupations together with the universe of worker-level administrative data. We demonstrate that employment has become greener over time, and that the greening of occupations over time (“within-effect”) is at least as important for the overall greening of employment as shifting occupational employment shares (“between-effect”). Furthermore, we show that the decrease in the share of brown tasks in brown occupations and the increase in the share of green tasks in green occupations contribute most to the within-effect. As for the between-effect, worker flows to and from non-employment are a major factor, direct worker flows from brown to green occupations do not play an important role. Finally, we find that foreign and low-skilled workers are most at risk from the green transition. These findings highlight that facilitating on-the-job training and targeted support for vulnerable groups is essential to ensure an inclusive and efficient decarbonization of the economy.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103329

Journal of Urban Economics (2026)

Eleanor Krause (University of Kentucky)

Why do regions decline? This paper explores how adverse shocks in one period affect regional adjustment to subsequent shocks, emphasizing the role of selective migration. I leverage differential exposure to coal’s decline and variation in proximity to historical employment shifts to study this process of regional decline in Appalachia. The consequences of the 2007–2017 coal shock were more acute in counties that experienced larger declines in college-educated adults due to exogenous labor demand shifts in the 1980s. These findings indicate that the adverse effects of shocks can accumulate over time, leaving certain regions differentially vulnerable to new challenges.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2026.103858

Nature Climate Change (2023)

Judy Jingwei Xie (Imperial College London)

Melissa Martin (Imperial College London)

Joeri Rogelj (Imperial College London)

et al.

The transition towards a low-carbon power system presents challenges and opportunities for the workforce with important implications for just transitions. Studies of these distributional labour impacts could benefit from tighter linkages between energy and employment modelling. Here, we couple a power-sector optimization model, an employment impact model and demographic databases to understand state-level job characteristics and the societal implications of low-carbon transitions in the US. Although decarbonization brings consistent job growth, it heightens the need for investment in human capital and supply chain restructuring. Major fossil fuel-producing states need to prepare for fewer mining jobs under the US Long-Term Strategy, so other opportunities should be created or seized. The lowest-skilled workers will experience more uncertain employment outcomes. Expanding renewable energy could improve opportunities for women in fossil fuel-dependent states, but not enough to disrupt the national gender status quo. This work provides a new quantitative perspective to inform proactive just transition policies.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01802-5

Nature Sustainability (2026)

Claudia Wieners (Utrecht University)

Francesco Lamperti (Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies)

Giovanni Dosi (Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies)

et al.

A large number of countries have by now pledged to undertake policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. However, evidence for a suitable policy package to induce an effective and orderly transition is scarce. Recent studies suggest that abrupt and aggressive climate policies may trigger significant transition risks, potentially leading to macroeconomic imbalances. Here we extend a macro-financial agent-based integrated assessment model grounded in evolutionary economics and complex systems science to test a variety of policy packages aimed at rapidly decarbonizing the global economy and study how they affect job creation and economic stability. We show that carbon taxation alone is self-defeating: its role at internalizing environmental costs while triggering rapid decarbonization finds little support. However, an ensemble of industrial regulations and public subsidies coupled with a mild carbon tax is the most promising policy toolkit to support a rapid and orderly transition. Such a policy mix can be designed to have a neutral impact on public finances and to boost job creation during the transition process. Carbon taxation serves primarily as a tool for raising public revenues to support government spending, rather than as a direct driver of rapid decarbonization.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01683-w

Nature Communications (2023)

Junghyun Lim (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Michaël Aklin (EPFL)

Morgan R. Frank (University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh)

The green energy revolution may displace 1.7 million fossil fuel workers in the US but a Just Transition to emerging green industry jobs offers possibilities for re-employing these workers. Here, using 14 years of power plant data from the US Energy Information Administration, job transition data from the Census Bureau, as well as employment and skills data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we assess whether people employed in fossil fuel resource extraction today are co-located and have the transferable skills to switch to expected green jobs. We find that these workers could leverage their mobility to other industries and have similar skills to green occupations. However, today’s fossil fuel extraction workers are not co-located with current sources of green energy production. Further, after accounting for federal employment projections, fossil fuel extraction workers are mostly not located in the regions where green employment will grow despite attaining the appropriate skillsets. These results suggest a large barrier to a Just Transition since fossil fuel extraction workers have not historically exhibited geospatial mobility. While stakeholders focus on re-skilling fossil fuel extraction workers, this analysis shows that co-location with emerging green employment will be the larger barrier to a Just Transition.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41133-9