Energy → Fertilizer → Policy → Food inflation

“This Is How Food Inflation Starts.”

Nitrogen and phosphorus are tightening together — for the first time in years.

Markets are still focused on grains.

They should be watching fertilizers.

Because what’s moving now is the cost of growing everything.

ENERGY & GEOPOLITICS

Drone strikes are disrupting Russia’s nitrogen industry, as confirmed by EuroChem’s Andrei Melnichenko.

At the same time, Strait of Hormuz risks expose ~1/3 of global fertilizer trade.

Nitrogen is the most vulnerable segment.

This is not localized. It’s systemic.

NITROGEN: SUPPLY SHOCK

Urea export flows are collapsing amid gas shortages, plant outages and logistics constraints.

Short-term supply is not flexible.

🇨🇳 PHOSPHORUS: CHINA TIGHTENS THE SYSTEM

China is securing its domestic supply:

Sulfuric acid export ban from May 1

Already tight quotas in place

As the world’s largest exporter of sulfuric acid, this directly constrains global phosphate fertilizer production (DAP, MAP, NPK).

One nutrient shortage can be managed.

Two cannot. 

This is where the system starts to break.

🇮🇳 DEMAND CONFIRMS IT

India is back. Aggressively.

Tender ~2.5 MMT

Offers pushing $1,000+/t (clustered near $1,000; lowest $935–$959/t CFR)

Weeks ago: ~$500

This is not a rally.

This is a price regime shift. 

🇷🇺 RUSSIA: CONTROL, NOT STOP

Export quotas remain through May.

Ammonium nitrate flows temporarily restricted.

Not a full stop — but enough to tighten availability further.

In a tight market, marginal volumes set the price.

FARM ECONOMICS UNDER STRESS 

Fertilizers: +100%

Crops: flat to weak

→ Margins compressing

→ Input decisions at risk

→ Yield potential under pressure

The system is tightening exactly where it matters most: next season’s production.

THE REAL RISK

Countries are reacting:

Securing supply

Considering export limits

Rebuilding strategic stocks

We’ve seen this before.

Not in the fields.

In policy.

THE BIG PICTURE

2022 started the same way:

Energy → Fertilizer → Policy → Food inflation

We are not there yet.

But this time, it’s a double shock.

Grains look abundant.

Fertilizers do not.

And without nitrogen and phosphorus…

abundance doesn’t last.

The Grain Brief® is a publication by Sandro Filippo Puglisi