亲爱的，有梦想的小伙伴们，大家早上好。

在新西兰与房地产市场漫长而传奇的“恋情”中，“普通爸妈”投资者一直是一个核心角色。

In New Zealand’s long and storied romance with the property market, the “mum and dad” investor has always been a central character.

由于拥有可供调动的资产净值，他们传统上占到了所有住宅销售的三分之一到一半——既推动了银行信贷的流动，也推动了房价的稳步上涨。

With equity ready to draw on, they’ve traditionally accounted for between a third and half of all residential sales – driving a flow of bank credit, but also a steady rise in house prices.

然而，到了2026年，有强烈迹象表明，这些市场推动者正在袖手旁观，甚至彻底离场。

In 2026, however, there are strong signs these market movers are sticking to the sidelines, or getting out of the game altogether.

独立经济学家托尼·亚历山大最近对200名普通爸妈房东进行的一项调查显示，市场情绪发生了急剧转变，创纪录数量的房东（38%）计划出售房产，而想要买入的则相对较少（12%）。最新的Cotality数据表明，他们在市场上仍然有一定活跃度——有抵押贷款的投资人在今年第一季度全国销售中占了四分之一——但远不及过去的水平。

A recent survey of 200 mum-and-dad landlords by independent economist Tony Alexander points to a sharp shift in sentiment, with a record number (38%) planning to sell and relatively few (12%) seeking to buy. The latest Cotality data suggests they’re still somewhat active in the market – investors with mortgages were behind a quarter of national sales in the first quarter of the year – but not at the levels seen in the past.

与此同时，各种压力正在改变房地产投资的经济账。

At the same time, various pressures have been changing the economics of property investment.

接受调查的这200名投资者特别提到了几个担忧：运营成本上升、地税不断上涨、寻找可靠租户的持续挑战，以及伊朗战争带来的经济不确定性。

Those 200 surveyed investors singled out concerns about higher running costs, rising council rates, ongoing challenges in securing reliable tenants and economic uncertainty over the Iran war.

这种不确定性在最新数据中得到了进一步体现——数据显示，卖家已将要价下调了数万纽币，其中一些人仍在试图脱手他们在2021年市场高峰期购买的房产。

That uncertainty is further illustrated by new figures showing sellers have been slashing asking prices by tens of thousands of dollars, with some still trying to offload houses they bought at the market’s 2021 peak.

对于许多较小的投资者来说，那个曾经依赖稳定资本增值的模式，似乎变得越来越难以为继。

For many smaller investors, it appears the model that once relied on steady capital gains is becoming harder to sustain.

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