SUN, MAY 3 2026 • 1:26 PM EDT

美国东部夏令时间2026年5月3日（周日）下午1:26

Buffett: ‘We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now’

巴菲特：“市场参与者从未像现在这样，抱着如此强烈的赌博心态。”

Warren Buffett speaks with CNBC during the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, NE on May 2, 2026. David A. Grogan | CNBC

2026年5月2日，内布拉斯加州奥马哈市，沃伦・巴菲特在伯克希尔・哈撒韦年度股东大会期间接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访。

摄影：戴维・A・格罗根 | 美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）

During the lunch break, Buffett compared“markets to a church with a casino attached,”making a distinction between traditional value investing and current enthusiasm for short-term options trading along with increasing interest in prediction markets.

午休期间，巴菲特将“市场比作一座附带赌场的教堂”，以此区分传统价值投资，与当前市场对短期期权交易的狂热、以及对预测市场日益增长的兴趣。

“People can move between the church and the casino, and I would say there are more people in the church [than] people in the casino, but the casino has gotten very attractive,”he said.“If you’re buying one-day options or selling them, that’s not investing, it’s not speculating–it’s gambling.”

他表示：“人们可以在教堂和赌场之间来回切换，我会说教堂里的人还是比赌场里的多，但赌场已经变得非常有吸引力了。如果你在买入或卖出单日期权，那不是投资，也不是投机——那就是赌博。”

Buffett said the enthusiasm for“gambling”is at a peak.

巴菲特称，市场中这种“赌博式投机”的情绪已经达到顶峰。

“We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now,” he said.

他说：“人们从未像现在这样，抱着如此强烈的赌博心态。”

Buffett commented on the recent case of a U.S. soldier who allegedly used classified information related to a military operation in Venezuela to make $400,000 on a prediction market. The Department of Justice is currently prosecuting the case.

巴菲特评论了近期一起案件：一名美国士兵涉嫌利用与委内瑞拉军事行动相关的机密信息，在预测市场中获利40万美元。美国司法部目前正在对该案提起诉讼。

“There’s nobody who can explain why they’re buying an option for one day unless they may have maybe [the chance to make] $400-and-some-thousand from knowing when we were going into Venezuela. … The quantity of those things is just incredible,” he said.

他表示：“没人能解释，为什么有人要去买一份一天期的期权，除非他们可能因为知道我们何时会对委内瑞拉采取行动，而赚到这 40 多万美元…… 这类交易的数量简直离谱。”

—— 托比亚斯・伯恩斯

— Tobias Burns

英文原文来自CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/02/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-2026-live-updates.html#108301161-1JV8T7hsL