✨ Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous（即便能源市场迎来最乐观情境，结局仍然糟糕）

💬 Whatever happens, high prices will outlive the Iran war（无论局势如何收场，高能源价格都会比伊朗战争持续得更久）（原文来自经济学人^[1]）

🔥 段落 1

[EN] The third Gulf war is now in its fourth week. Every day that Iranian strikes on ships keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, around a fifth of the world’s output of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains stranded. Every day, therefore, traders update how much supply is lost for the year. As their estimates rise, so do energy prices. Brent crude, at $112 a barrel, is 54% dearer than before hostilities began. Gas prices in Europe are up by 85%.

[CN] 第三次海湾战争已经打到第四周。只要伊朗对船只的袭击仍让霍尔木兹海峡处于关闭状态，全球大约五分之一的石油和液化天然气（liquefied natural gas, LNG）产量就会继续滞留在外。于是，交易员每天都在重算今年究竟少了多少供应；估算越往上修，能源价格也跟着往上走。布伦特原油（Brent crude）已涨到每桶112美元，较敌对行动爆发前高出54%；欧洲天然气价格则上涨了85%。

🔥 段落 2

[EN] The reason they are not much higher is that investors expect flows to resume soon. Financial bets that prices will fall (put options) outnumber those expecting a rise (call options) for July deliveries and onwards, according to Société General, a bank (see chart 1). Account for transport lags, in other words, and investors expect normality by May.

[CN] 价格之所以还没有涨得更离谱，是因为投资者相信运输和供应很快会恢复。法国兴业银行（Société Générale）称，针对7月交割及之后合约，押注价格下跌的看跌期权多于押注价格上涨的看涨期权（见图1）。换句话说，把运输时滞算进去之后，投资者依然预期市场到5月就能回到常态。

🔥 段落 3

[EN] To assess those expectations, The Economist calculated how long normalisation would take if the war ended today. Even if Iran accedes to Donald Trump’s threat on March 21st to unblock the strait within 48 hours or face strikes on its power plants, a big “if”, global oil and gas markets would remain undersupplied for months, hurting the world economy.

[CN] 为了检验这种预期，《经济学人》测算了一下：如果战争今天结束，市场要多久才能真正恢复正常。即便伊朗会答应唐纳德·特朗普3月21日发出的最后通牒——在48小时内解除海峡封锁，否则其发电厂将遭打击——这个前提本身就很难成立，全球油气市场未来几个月仍会处于供应不足状态，并拖累世界经济。

🔥 段落 4

[EN] For energy markets to right themselves once Hormuz reopens, three things need to happen. First, Gulf producers must restore output to pre-war levels. Second, ships must ferry that output to refiners abroad. And third, those refiners must process it into usable fuel. Each stage of this industrial relay takes time.

[CN] 霍尔木兹海峡即便重新开放，能源市场要想重新站稳，也得依次完成三件事。第一，海湾产油国得把产量恢复到战前；第二，船只得把这些原料运到海外炼厂；第三，炼厂还得把原料加工成可用燃料。这条工业接力链条的每一环，都需要时间。

🔥 段落 5

[EN] Start with production. Unable to export and faced with storage constraints, Gulf countries have already cut their output of crude by a combined 10m barrels per day (b/d), equivalent to 10% of the global total and 40% of their pre-war levels (see chart 2). To bring this back online, producers must check everything still works and clear pipe blockages. Only then can they restart wells by restoring pressure—and gently, to avoid damaging reservoirs. Revving up the separators, compressors and treatment plants where oil goes for initial processing will take additional time.

[CN] 先看生产端。由于出口中断，又面临储存约束，海湾国家已经把原油日产量合计削减了1000万桶，相当于全球总产量的10%，也是其战前水平的40%（见图2）。要把这些产能重新拉回来，生产商得先确认整套系统还能运转，并清除管道堵塞。之后才能给油井重新加压，而且必须慢慢来，以免损伤油藏。至于分离器、压缩机以及原油初步处理装置，也都还需要额外时间重启。

🔥 段落 6

[EN] Although, as members of OPEC, Gulf states are used to modulating output up and down in days, the latest cuts are more sudden and deeper than anything they have faced before. Experts reckon all this will take between two and four weeks.

[CN] 海湾国家作为石油输出国组织（OPEC）成员，平时对几天内增减产、调节产量并不陌生。但这一次减产来得更突然，幅度也比它们过去经历的任何一次都更深。业内人士估计，整套恢复过程要花两到四周。

🔥 段落 7

[EN] Gas looks even gnarlier. Qatar’s Ras Laffan, which supplies nearly a fifth of the world’s LNG, has been shut since March 2nd after an Iranian drone strike. In the past week a missile strike badly damaged two of the plant’s 14 liquefaction units, accounting for 17% of its capacity—and 3% of global supply. Repairs will take 3-5 years, Qatar’s energy minister says, and a planned expansion will be delayed. The full extent of the damage elsewhere is unclear. But weeks of repairs are probably needed for any operations to resume even in facilities that suffered less of it. And mending is just the start. The equipment must then be purged of moisture to ensure that pipes do not crack as it is cooled back down to -160°C. Rush the process and the metal contracts unevenly, shattering welds. Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University reckons that all this could take up to seven weeks.

[CN] 天然气这边的局面更棘手。卡塔尔的拉斯拉凡（Ras Laffan）供应了全球近五分之一的液化天然气，自3月2日遭伊朗无人机袭击后一直停摆。过去一周里，又有导弹重创该基地14套液化装置中的两套，约占其产能的17%，也相当于全球供应的3%。卡塔尔能源大臣表示，修复需要3到5年，原定扩建计划也会推迟。其他设施究竟受损到什么程度，目前还不清楚。但就算受损较轻的设施，要恢复运营，大概也得先修上好几周。更何况，修好只是开始。随后还得把设备里的水汽排净，否则在重新降温至零下160摄氏度时，管道可能会开裂。流程一旦赶得太急，金属收缩就会不均，焊缝也可能崩裂。哥伦比亚大学的Anne-Sophie Corbeau估计，全部做完，最长可能需要七周。

🔥 段落 8

[EN] Next comes shipping. In the event of a ceasefire, most captains of the 480 or so vessels stranded in the Gulf would want to see several days free of attacks before attempting to exit. Most tankers are already loaded and the strait can handle heavy traffic, so the backlog could be cleared in a fortnight. In principle, new ships could then come in to pick up the gradually restarting production.

[CN] 接下来是航运。哪怕出现停火，困在海湾的大约480艘船的船长，大多也会想先等上几天，确认没有新的袭击，再决定离开。多数油轮已经装满，而海峡本身也有能力承受高密度通行，因此这批积压运力理论上可在两周内消化掉。之后，新船本可以陆续进来，把逐步恢复的产量运走。

🔥 段落 9

[EN] In practice, few vessels may oblige for many weeks. Iran has attacked port facilities across the Gulf, hitting fuel tanks, warehouses and ships at anchor. The terminals appear largely intact but some damage may not have been disclosed. Sunken vessels or infrastructure may need to be cleared to ensure safe passage, observes John Ollett of Argus Media, a price-reporting agency. Repairs to piers or loading equipment typically take months.

[CN] 但在现实中，未来很多周里，愿意配合进出的船只恐怕不会太多。伊朗已经袭击了整个海湾多地的港口设施，燃料罐、仓库和锚泊中的船只都遭到打击。码头看上去大体还在，可部分损毁情况未必已经公开。价格信息机构Argus Media的John Ollett指出，沉船或受损基础设施可能都得先清理，航道才能恢复安全通行。至于码头栈桥或装载设备，修起来通常要按月来算。

🔥 段落 10

[EN] Moreover, most war-risk insurance in the region has been cancelled. Those insurers still writing cover have raised rates from 0.2-0.4% of vessel value to 1% or more, with the riskiest voyages fetching 10%. Anyone with internet access can identify a ship’s owners or charterers, making vessels linked to Iran’s enemies a potential target if tensions flare. Insurers will not reprice policies down in a hurry, says Ellis Morley of Howden, a broker.

[CN] 更麻烦的是，该地区大多数战争风险保险已经被取消。仍愿承保的保险商，也把保费从船值的0.2%到0.4%抬高到1%以上，风险最高的航次甚至达到10%。如今只要能上网，任何人都能查到一艘船背后的船东或承租方；一旦局势再次升级，那些与伊朗敌对国家有关联的船只就会成为潜在目标。保险经纪公司Howden的Ellis Morley说，保险商不会急着把费率调回去。

🔥 段落 11

[EN] And even once insurance becomes available—and affordable—again, captains and shipowners may hesitate. Although Yemen’s Houthi rebels formally ended their two-year campaign against Western-aligned vessels in the Red Sea last November, half as many oil tankers (and virtually no LNG tankers) are risking the passage as in 2023, unsure if they can take the Houthis, who are sponsored by Iran, at their word.

[CN] 就算保险重新买得到、价格也回到可承受范围，船长和船东仍可能迟疑。也门胡塞武装去年11月虽然正式结束了持续两年、针对西方阵营船只的红海袭击行动，但目前愿意冒险走这条航线的油轮数量，仍只有2023年的一半左右，液化天然气船几乎没有。大家拿不准，是否真能相信这些由伊朗支持的胡塞武装说话算数。

🔥 段落 12

[EN] Further delays will be caused by the world’s tanker fleet being in the wrong place. When the war erupted, the supertankers that once ferried Middle Eastern crude to Asia went looking for business in the Atlantic. When Hormuz reopens, many will opt to complete their current voyage—pick up oil in America, drop it off in China—before heading to the Gulf (see chart 3). The round trip usually takes up to 90 days, says Andrew Wilson of BSR, a broker.

[CN] 全球油轮船队“停错地方”，也会带来额外拖延。战争爆发后，原本把中东原油运往亚洲的超级油轮纷纷转去大西洋找生意。等霍尔木兹重新开放后，许多船大概率会先把手头航次跑完——在美洲装油、运到中国——然后才返回海湾（见图3）。经纪公司BSR的Andrew Wilson说，这样一个往返通常要花90天。

🔥 段落 13

[EN] Even once Gulf crude belatedly reaches faraway refineries, this will not immediately relieve fuel shortages. Some in China, India, Malaysia and Thailand have closed whole units for want of raw material. Asian refiners’ total throughput is down by 3m b/d, or 8%. Once Gulf crude returns, revving those plants back up might take a few weeks. Emergency shutdowns in particular can take months to undo, says Ajay Parmar, a former engineer at TotalEnergies, a French energy giant. As with upstream production sites, restarting downstream refineries means checking and purging every pipe; restoring power, steam, cooling water and compressed-air systems; and heating processing units slowly to avoid cracking the metal. The same goes for LNG regasification plants.

[CN] 就算海湾原油迟迟抵达远方炼厂，也不会立刻缓解燃料短缺。中国、印度、马来西亚和泰国的一些炼厂，已经因为缺少原料而整套装置停转。亚洲炼厂的总加工量下降了300万桶/日，约为8%。等海湾原油重新到位后，把这些工厂再拉起来，也还得花上几周。法国能源巨头道达尔能源（TotalEnergies）前工程师Ajay Parmar说，尤其是紧急停机之后，恢复往往要以月计。和上游生产设施一样，重启下游炼厂意味着要逐一检查并吹扫所有管道，恢复电力、蒸汽、冷却水和压缩空气系统，还得慢慢给处理装置升温，以免金属开裂。液化天然气再气化装置（LNG regasification plants）也一样。

🔥 段落 14

[EN] Even if Donald Trump and Iran reached a deal to stop fighting tomorrow, it would thus be another four months before markets regained some semblance of normality. Producers elsewhere cannot crank up output fast enough to recover past losses. The result is to shave off some 3% of planned global oil production this year. Every month Ras Laffan stays shut, the world loses around 7m tonnes of LNG—nearly 2% of projected annual supply. And full capacity will, owing to the latest strikes, be lower than before. The upshot is that production will fall 4% short of demand this year even if Qatar started pumping what it can today.

[CN] 所以，就算唐纳德·特朗普明天就和伊朗谈成停火协议，市场也还要再过四个月，才可能勉强恢复一点常态。其他地区的生产商来不及迅速增产，无法填平此前造成的损失。结果就是，今年全球原油计划产量将被削去约3%。拉斯拉凡每多停一个月，全球就会少掉大约700万吨液化天然气，接近全年预计供应量的2%。而且由于最新一轮袭击，未来的满负荷产能也会低于从前。归根结底，即便卡塔尔今天就把还能开的设备都开起来，今年产量仍会比需求低4%。

🔥 段落 15

[EN] The implications are stark. Global crude stocks, on course to end March in the bottom third of their historical range, will also keep dwindling for weeks after Hormuz reopens. As countries with thin buffers run out, they could trigger bouts of panic-buying and price spikes. Bidding wars for LNG are equally likely. The last cargoes from Qatar to leave before Hormuz closed will reach Asia and Europe in days, says Ashley Sherman of Vortexa, a ship-tracker. After that, buyers must seek supplies elsewhere or go without, jeopardising the restocking of reserves for winter (see chart 4).

[CN] 后果相当严峻。全球原油库存到3月底本就将落在历史区间的后三分之一，等霍尔木兹重新开放之后，库存还会继续减少好几周。那些缓冲能力本来就弱的国家一旦告急，就可能触发一轮轮恐慌性抢购，并把价格进一步推高。液化天然气市场同样很可能爆发竞价战。船舶追踪机构Vortexa的Ashley Sherman说，在霍尔木兹关闭前最后离开卡塔尔的那批货，几天后就会抵达亚洲和欧洲；之后，买家要么改去别处找货，要么只能硬扛短缺，这还会危及冬季储备回补（见图4）。

🔥 段落 16

[EN] Oil and gas traders are still banking on a spring miracle. The world is praying for one. But even if Mr Trump and Iran’s ayatollahs grant this wish, the logistics of oil and gas will not be easily appeased. Energy markets will be living with the war’s fallout well into northern winter.

[CN] 石油和天然气交易员仍在押注，春天会出现奇迹。全世界也都在盼着这样的奇迹。可即便特朗普与伊朗的神权统治者真让这份愿望成真，油气运输与加工这套庞大物流体系也不可能立刻平复。能源市场将一直背负这场战争的余波，至少拖到北半球冬季深处。

🔥 重点词汇对照（24 个）

• • stranded — 滞留
• • hostilities — 敌对行动
• • put options — 看跌期权
• • call options — 看涨期权
• • normalisation — 恢复正常
• • accedes to — 答应
• • undersupplied — 供应不足
• • storage constraints — 储存约束
• • pre-war levels — 战前水平
• • modulating output — 调节产量
• • liquefaction units — 液化装置
• • purged of moisture — 排净水分
• • ceasefire — 停火
• • backlog — 积压
• • war-risk insurance — 战争风险保险
• • flare — 升级
• • sponsored by — 支持
• • supertankers — 超级油轮
• • throughput — 加工量
• • emergency shutdowns — 紧急停机
• • downstream refineries — 下游炼厂
• • semblance of normality — 恢复一点常态
• • dwindling — 减少
• • panic-buying — 恐慌性抢购

🔖 引用链接

[1] 经济学人: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/22/even-the-best-case-scenario-for-energy-markets-is-disastrous