利率与通胀影响股票市场

Throughout the eighties most Americans chased yield, sinking their savings into whatever bank accounts, CDs, or money market funds paid the highest rate. But during this period, returns on most bonds plunged. From 1989 to 1992, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan dutifully whittled away at short-term interest rates, and by 1992 CDs and money marker funds were paying as little as 4 percent. Municipal bonds had fallen to 6 percent. Thirty-year bonds yielded 8 percent. Such returns seemed measly to investors who clung to fond memories of six-month bank CDs paying 13 percent-and harbored less fond memories of inflation approaching 15 percent. A year later, the federal funds rate stood at 3 percent, the lowest in three decades. Little wonder investors felt they had no choice but to begin buying stocks. “I’m bullish partially out of necessity,” explained John McDermott, a 71-year-old retiree from New Jersey. “Now that I’m retired, the only way I have to increase my income is to get into equities.”
在整个八十年代，大多数美国人都追求高收益，将积蓄投入那些利率最高的银行账户、定期存款或货币市场基金。但在这段时期，大多数债券的收益大幅下降。从 1989 年到 1992 年，美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘尽职尽责地降低短期利率，到 1992 年，定期存款和货币市场基金的收益率低至 4%。市政债券的收益率降至 6%。30 年期债券的收益率为 8%。对于那些还怀有银行六个月定期存款 13%高收益的美好回忆的投资者来说，这样的收益实在微不足道——他们对通胀接近 15%的回忆则更加不美好。一年后，联邦基金利率降至 3%，为三十年来的最低水平。难怪投资者觉得别无选择，只能开始购买股票。“我之所以看涨，部分是出于无奈，”来自新泽西州的 71 岁退休老人约翰·麦克德莫特解释道，“现在我退休了，唯一能增加收入的方式就是投资股票。”零。

———节选自巴菲特2003年股东信推荐书籍《Bull!》