经济学人智库:2026全球汽车市场四大展望(中国车企将重塑全球汽车行业格局)

Part Two 第二部分

Chinese carmakers will disrupt the status quo

中国车企将重塑全球汽车行业格局

Vehicle producers have faced numerous challenges over the past few years, but a combination of higher trade barriers and tougher competition in the EV market in 2026 may represent the biggest trial yet. In 2026 companies will need to focus on rejigging their supply chains, production schedules and sales mixes, at a time when revenues will be at risk for many. Carmakers involved in the US market will need to raise local production and ensure compliance with the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA) to minimise their tariff burden.

过去几年，汽车制造商面临重重挑战，但2026年贸易壁垒加剧叠加电动汽车市场竞争白热化，或将成为迄今最严峻的考验。2026年，在众多企业营收面临风险的背景下，车企需着力重构供应链、调整生产计划与产品销售结构。深耕美国市场的车企，必须提高本地化生产规模，并严格遵守《美墨加协定》（USMCA），以最大限度降低关税成本。

In general, automakers will replace “just-in-time” supply chains (which prioritise costs and efficiency) with a “just-in-case” model to improve supply-chain resilience. This will involve moving the sourcing of high value, tariff-sensitive components like battery cells, motors and key electronics closer to the final assembly plant, thereby increasing localisation and minimising policy exposure. Hyundai (South Korea), Volkswagen (Germany) and Stellantis (Netherlands) are among those ramping up US production to minimise tariffs, and companies such Toyota (Japan) plan to increase battery production there. Companies will also seek to minimise their sourcing of Chinese components by buying more from countries including South Korea, India and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

总体来看，车企将把以成本和效率为核心的“准时制”（Just-in-Time, JIT）供应链，转向“以防万一”（Just-in-Case, JIC）模式，以提升供应链韧性。这意味着要将电芯、电机、关键电子元器件等高价值、关税敏感零部件的采购布局，转移至整车组装厂周边，从而提高本地化率，降低政策风险。现代（韩国）、大众（德国）、斯特兰蒂斯（荷兰）等企业正加大在美国的生产投入以减少关税影响，丰田（日本）等企业也计划在美国扩大电池生产。同时，车企将增加从韩国、印度及东盟（ASEAN）等国家和地区的采购，降低对中国零部件的依赖。