【行业报告】中国奶酪市场现状及发展建议(中)Current State and Development Recommendations for China’s Cheese (Part 2)

在上篇中，我们拆解了中国奶酪市场的规模变化与格局调整——B端接棒增长、龙头集中度回升，行业正从阶段性承压走向复苏。今天，我们继续深入，看看奶酪的消费特征发生了哪些变化，以及宏观环境如何为行业赋能，解锁奶酪市场的长期增长潜力。

In the previous article, we analyzed the scale shifts and structural changes in China’s cheese market—with production demand driving growth and leading players regaining market share, the industry is moving from short-term pressure toward recovery. Building on that, this article explores evolving consumer trends and how the macro environment empowers the sector, unlocking the long-term growth potential of the cheese market.

一、消费特征：渗透不均显潜力，场景多元促增长

Consumer Traits: Uneven Penetration Highlights Potential, Diversified Scenarios Drive Growth

近几年，奶酪的应用创新不断突破，其营养健康的功能属性和富含情绪价值的消费体验，赢得了越来越多消费者的喜爱。在烘焙、茶饮、咖啡等餐饮场景中，奶酪的“准刚需”属性日益明显，同时在社交媒体上的话题热度持续攀升，形成了“社交传播→尝试消费→口碑扩散”的良性循环。

In recent years, continuous innovation in cheese applications has boosted its popularity among consumers, thanks to its nutritional and health benefits as well as its emotionally resonant consumption experience. Cheese has become increasingly essential in food service scenarios such as baking, tea drinks and coffee. Meanwhile, itis being mentioned frequently across social media, forming a virtuous cycle: social exposure → trial consumption → word-of-mouth expansion.

从消费渗透率来看，我国奶酪市场呈现“一线城市领跑，低线城市潜力巨大”的格局。其中，一线城市奶酪渗透率高于60%，而三四线城市渗透率不足10%，下沉市场的增长空间亟待挖掘。从消费人群来看，一二线城市的年轻消费者，仍是当前奶酪消费的核心群体。

In terms of penetration, China’s cheese market is characterized by leading growth in first-tier cities and huge untapped potential in lower-tier cities. Penetration in first-tier cities exceeds 60%, while that in third- and fourth-tier cities stands at less than 10%, leaving massive room for growth in the lower-tier markets. As for consumer groups, young consumers in first- and second-tier cities remain the core cheese buyers.

从零售渠道来看，目前奶酪消费仍以线下渠道为主，传统电商、内容电商等线上渠道销售额逐年递减，线下商超、便利店、会员店等“近场消费”渠道，成为奶酪触达消费者的核心场景。

Regarding retail channels, offline channels still dominate cheese purchases. Sales via online channels, including traditional e-commerce and content e-commerce, have declined year by year. Instead, proximity consumption channels such as offline supermarkets, convenience stores and warehouse clubs have become key touchpoints connecting cheese products with consumers.

二、市场展望：对标海外，增长空间广阔

Market Outlook: Vast Growth Potential Compared with Mature Overseas Markets

对标欧美日韩等海外成熟市场，我国多元化、健康化饮食需求持续增加，乳制品深加工产品的市场规模仍有巨大提升空间。预计未来1-2年，我国奶酪行业市场规模有望达到300-400亿元。

Against the backdrop of rising demand for diversified and healthier diets in China, the market for processed dairy products such as cheese still has substantial room for expansion compared with mature markets in Europe, the US, Japan and South Korea. China’s cheese market size is expected to reach 30–40 billion yuan in the next 1–2 years.

人均消费量的差距，直接反映了奶酪市场的增长潜力。欧睿国际数据显示，2024年我国人均奶酪消费量仅为0.2kg，而同期日本人均消费量为1.8kg、韩国为2.6kg；欧美主要国家人均消费量更是遥遥领先，英国、美国分别为9.7kg、11.2kg，法国高达16.9kg。

The gap in per capita consumption directly reflects the market’s growth potential. According to Euromonitor International, China’s per capita cheese consumption was merely 0.2 kg in 2024, versus 1.8 kg in Japan and 2.6 kg in South Korea. Major Western economies recorded far higher figures: 9.7 kg in the UK, 11.2 kg in the US and a remarkable 16.9 kg in France.

从消费占比来看，差距同样显著。2024年，我国乳制品消费中奶酪占比仅3%，而饮食习惯相近的日韩分别为13%、10%，欧美主要国家则在30%-50%之间。

A similar gap exists in consumption structure. In 2024, cheese accounted for only 3% of China’s dairy consumption, compared with 13% in Japan and 10% in South Korea—countries with comparable dietary habits—and 30%–50% in major Western economies.

尽管奶酪并非中国人传统饮食结构中的必需品，但在行业本土化探索的推动下，随着居民健康意识的提升、西式饮食需求的增加，长期来看，我国奶酪行业仍有广阔的增长空间。目前，国内奶酪市场正处于关键转折点，经历增速放缓后，2025年上半年已出现复苏迹象，市场结构正从“儿童零食主导”向“全年龄段、多场景多元化消费”转变。

Although cheese is not a staple in traditional Chinese diets, long-term growth prospects remain promising thanks to industry-wide localization efforts, rising health awareness and growing demand for Western-style food. The domestic cheese market is at a pivotal turning point: after a slowdown in growth, signs of recovery emerged in the first half of 2025, and the market is shifting from childhood snack-dominated to diversified consumption across all age groups and scenarios.

三、宏观环境：政策、经济、消费、技术四重赋能

Macro Environment: Four-Way Empowerment from Policy, Economy, Consumption and Technology

奶酪行业的持续发展，离不开宏观环境的有力支撑，政策、经济、消费、技术四大因素协同发力，为行业增长保驾护航。

Sustained development of the cheese industry relies heavily on supportive macro conditions, with policies, economics, consumption trends and technology working in tandem to underpin growth.

（一）政策支持：国产奶酪迎来发展机遇

Policy Support: Domestic Cheese Seizes Development Opportunities

我国围绕牧场改造、乳企技术升级，推动奶酪等干乳制品精深加工，提升国产乳制品竞争力，密集出台了多项国家政策。

China has introduced a series of national policies focused on pasture improvement and technological upgrades for dairy enterprises to promote the deep processing of cheese and other concentrated/solid dairy products, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of domestically produced dairy products.

此外，据商务部公告，自2025年12月23日起，我国对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时反补贴措施（涉及奶酪产品）。2026年2月12日，商务部作出最终裁定，自2026年2月13日起正式对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品征收反补贴税，税率为7.4%-11.7%，实施期限5年。此前按初裁比例（21.9%-42.7%）缴纳的临时反补贴税保证金将转为反补贴税，超出部分予以退还。此次反补贴措施将有效降低进口奶酪的价格优势，为国产奶酪发展创造有利条件。

In addition, according to the announcement by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), China imposed provisional countervailing measures on relevant dairy products (involving cheese products) originating from the EU, effective December 23, 2025. On February 12, 2026, MOFCOM issued its final ruling, imposing definitive countervailing duties on relevant EU-origin dairy products at rates ranging from 7.4% to 11.7% for a period of five years, effective February 13, 2026. Provisional countervailing duty deposits previously collected at the preliminary rates (21.9%–42.7%) will be converted into definitive countervailing duties, with any excess amounts refunded.These countervailing measures are expected to effectively reduce the price advantage of imported cheese, thereby creating favorable conditions for the development of adomestic cheese products. 

同时，婴幼儿食品监管趋严，要求儿童奶酪产品持续升级配方（如减盐、减糖），也将推动国产深加工乳制品（如奶酪、稀奶油等）的需求提升。

Meanwhile, stricter regulation of infant and young child food requires continuous formula optimization of children’s cheese (e.g., reduced salt and sugar content), further driving demand for domestic processed dairy products such as cheese and cream.

（二）经济因素：成本优势凸显，消费潜力释放

Economic Factors: Highlighted Cost Advantages & Unleashed Consumption Potential

我国经济具有较强韧性，未来随着经济增长恢复、消费者健康意识增强，奶酪作为优质蛋白类产品，消费仍将保持较快增长。同时，2023年以来，国内生鲜乳供过于求，原奶价格处于相对低位，短周期内国内外奶价联动趋势减弱。

China’s economy demonstrates strong resilience. As economic growth rebounds and consumer health awareness rises, cheese—as a premium protein product—will maintain relatively fast consumption growth. Moreover, a surplus in domestic raw milk supply since 2023 has kept raw milk price at relatively low level, weakening short-term linkage between domestic and international milk prices.

对比进口大包粉折原奶价格与国内主产区生鲜乳价格发现，自2024年4月以来，国内奶价更具优势，为乳制品国产替代创造了条件，也让国内乳企深加工环节的成本竞争力进一步凸显。

A comparison between the raw milk equivalent price of imported whole milk powder and raw milk prices in major domestic production areas shows that domestic milk prices have held a competitive edge since April 2024. This facilitates import substitution of dairy products and strengthens the cost competitiveness of domestic dairy enterprises in processing.

（下篇预告：下篇我们将聚焦消费与技术层面的赋能细节，同时为奶酪企业提供针对性的发展建议，助力企业把握行业机遇。）

(Preview of Part 3: The next part will dive into consumer and technology-driven enablers in detail, and provide targeted development strategies for cheese enterprises to help them seize industry opportunities.)

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