市场暴跌表明华尔街对伊朗战争日益担忧Market Dive Points to Wall Street’s Growing Alarm Over Iran War

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市场暴跌表明华尔街对伊朗战争日益担忧Market Dive Points to Wall Street's Growing Alarm Over Iran War

Wall Street is trading like the worst pain from the war with Iran is yet to come.
华尔街当前的交易表现表明，市场认为伊朗战争带来的最严重冲击尚未显现。
For weeks, while missiles and drones flew around one of the world’s key energy-producing regions, investors’ hopes for a quick resolution buffered stocks from steep declines. A selloff in bonds stayed in line with past conflicts. A run-up in crude futures appeared to lag far behind the scope of a disruption that could be the most severe oil shock in history.
数周以来，在全球重要能源产区导弹与无人机频繁交战之际，投资者对冲突迅速解决的期待支撑了股市，避免其大幅下跌。债券市场的抛售仍与以往冲突时期的走势一致，而原油期货的上涨幅度似乎远低于可能成为历史上最严重石油冲击的实际影响。
But an intensifying rout in recent days pulled the S&P 500 down for a fifth straight week to its lowest levels since August and dragged the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq composite into correction—off more than 10% from their recent highs. President Trump’s latest social-media post on potential offramps from a wider war wasn’t enough to arrest crude prices’ climb Friday, a sign that oil traders are increasingly bracing for more turbulence ahead.
但近期加剧的市场抛售已使标普500指数连续第五周下跌，跌至自8月以来最低水平，同时将道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数拖入回调区间——较近期高点下跌超过10%。特朗普总统关于避免战争升级的最新社交媒体表态未能阻止周五油价上涨，这表明石油交易员正越来越为未来更大的波动做准备。
Now, the Pentagon is weighing whether to send 10,000 additional ground troops to the region while it pursues peace talks with Tehran. The conflicting signals have forced investors the world over to pare back risks and study how long—and how hard—wars from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Gulf War in 1990 dented the global economy.
目前，美国国防部正在考虑是否向该地区增派1万名地面部队，同时继续与德黑兰进行和平谈判。这些相互矛盾的信号迫使全球投资者降低风险敞口，并重新评估2022年俄乌战争和1990年海湾战争对全球经济的持续时间和冲击程度。
“Peak panic is yet to come,” said Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro. “Panic by definition is irrational. Markets don’t know how to price it.”
Alpine Macro首席地缘政治策略师丹·阿拉马里乌表示：“恐慌的顶峰尚未到来。恐慌本质上是非理性的，市场无法对其进行定价。”
Even after Trump said Thursday that Iran allowed several commercial ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, traffic of skyscraper-size oil tankers remains at a trickle. Two container vessels belonging to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping were turned back from crossing the roughly 20-mile chokepoint Friday, according to ship tracker MarineTraffic and Chinese crew members nearby.
尽管特朗普周四表示伊朗已允许部分商船通过霍尔木兹海峡，但超大型油轮的通行仍然极为有限。根据船舶追踪平台MarineTraffic和附近中国船员的信息，中国国有企业中远海运的两艘集装箱船在周五被迫掉头，未能通过这条约20英里的关键航道。
市场暴跌表明华尔街对伊朗战争日益担忧Market Dive Points to Wall Street’s Growing Alarm Over Iran War
Iranian media reported that all traffic to and from ports of supporters of the U.S. and Israel is prohibited. The effective closure of the strait, which analysts say curbs about 1000万 barrels or more of oil a day, has raised the prospect that the U.S. may need to reopen the commercial artery by force.
伊朗媒体报道称，所有往返支持美国和以色列国家港口的船只均被禁止通行。分析人士表示，这一实际上的封锁每天影响约1000万桶或更多的石油运输，并引发了美国可能需要通过武力重新开放这一关键航道的可能性。
“You can’t TACO on this,” said Alamariu, referring to Trump’s pattern of pulling back from major threats. “In this case, Iran gets a veto, or at least a vote.”
阿拉马里乌表示：“这次不能再‘退缩’了。”他指的是特朗普过去在重大威胁问题上的反复立场。“在这种情况下，伊朗拥有否决权，至少也有发言权。”
That stranglehold on a shipping lane about 6,800 miles from Wall Street has turned the price of oil into a singular variable swinging markets and a de facto battlefield between a White House that wants to keep energy costs in check and an Iranian regime trying to do the opposite.
这条距离华尔街约6800英里的航道被控制，使油价成为影响市场的关键变量，也成为白宫（试图控制能源成本）与伊朗政权（试图推高能源价格）之间的“无形战场”。
“There is a battle in the information space, where President Trump is arguably winning this battle,” said Max Meizlish, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that has supported a confrontational approach to Iran.
华盛顿智库“保卫民主基金会”的研究员马克斯·迈兹利什表示：“在信息战层面，总统特朗普可以说正在占据上风。”该机构一直主张对伊朗采取更强硬立场。
But after messages from Washington and Tehran at various points moved the market—sometimes with false statements—traders say they are increasingly discounting leaders’ words in favor of information like troop movements.
但交易员表示，在华盛顿和德黑兰多次通过言论影响市场（有时甚至包含不实信息）之后，他们越来越不再依赖领导人的表态，而更关注部队调动等实际信息。
“We’re starting to see a slow grind upward [in oil prices] as the actual reality sets in versus the headlines,” said Charlie Macnamara, head of commodities at U.S. Bank.
美国银行大宗商品主管查理·麦克纳马拉表示：“随着现实逐渐显现，而非仅仅是新闻标题，油价开始缓慢上行。”
Oil producers in recent weeks have turned to financial markets to lock in bigger profits for their output over the next year. But many have also left open the possibility that prices could run even higher.
近几周，石油生产商已开始通过金融市场锁定未来一年的更高利润，但他们仍保留油价可能继续上涨的空间。
“Nobody is selling everything they have on any given day,” Macnamara added. “[Producers] don’t think this is going to be over in a few weeks.”
麦克纳马拉补充说：“没有人会在某一天卖出全部库存，[生产商]并不认为这场冲突会在几周内结束。”
On Friday, Brent crude climbed to $112.57 a barrel, its highest close since July 2022. The benchmark global oil futures and the S&P 500 have moved in opposite directions in 12 of the past 13 trading sessions.
周五，布伦特原油上涨至每桶112.57美元，创下自2022年7月以来的最高收盘价。在过去13个交易日中，全球基准油价与标普500指数有12次走势相反。
市场暴跌表明华尔街对伊朗战争日益担忧Market Dive Points to Wall Street’s Growing Alarm Over Iran War
All three major indexes were in the red Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7%, shedding 793 points. The Nasdaq fell 2.1%, while the S&P 500 retreated 1.7%. The broad index’s five consecutive weekly declines mark its worst such stretch since the俄乌战争 upended global markets in 2022.
周五，三大股指全部收跌。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.7%，跌793点；纳斯达克指数下跌2.1%；标普500指数下跌1.7%。标普连续五周下跌，创下自2022年俄乌战争冲击全球市场以来最差表现。
The fear trade has reared its head in several corners of the market in response. Demand for bearish options that would pay out if the S&P 500 kept sliding has jumped, driving a measure called skew to some of the highest levels of the past five years, according to Citadel Securities.
市场中“避险交易”再次抬头。根据Citadel Securities的数据，投资者对看跌期权的需求激增，这些期权在标普500继续下跌时将带来收益，并推动“偏度”指标升至过去五年的高位。
While America’s economic backdrop remains relatively strong, “without clear resolution on the conflict and stabilization in energy markets, it’s hard to see a sustained move higher,” said Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief market strategist.
Nationwide首席市场策略师马克·哈克特表示，尽管美国经济基本面仍相对稳健，但“如果冲突没有明确解决，能源市场无法稳定，很难看到市场持续上涨。”
The situation has left investors glued to satellite imagery of tanker traffic and estimates of how much oil, gasoline and other petroleum products various countries have stockpiled. Many fear that recent prices for physical deliveries of Middle Eastern oil, which has traded far higher than global or U.S. financial benchmarks, could soon ripple through other regions of the world.
当前局势使投资者密切关注油轮航运的卫星图像，以及各国石油、汽油等库存情况。许多人担心，中东地区实物原油价格已远高于全球或美国金融基准价格，这种差异可能很快传导至全球其他地区。
“Tankers that departed the Gulf prior to the escalation have largely completed their journeys and discharged cargoes,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “With limited new supply entering the market, the buffer that initially dampened price spikes is rapidly eroding.”
盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森表示：“在局势升级前离开海湾的油轮大多已完成运输并卸货。随着新供应有限，最初抑制价格飙升的缓冲正在迅速消失。”
Already, Wall Street has boosted its inflation expectations and pulled back bets on interest-rate cuts, while average U.S. gasoline prices tracked by AAA hover near $4 a gallon.
目前，华尔街已上调通胀预期，并减少对降息的押注，同时AAA数据显示美国平均汽油价格徘徊在每加仑4美元左右。
Those factors contributed to Americans’ economic outlook souring in March from a month earlier, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.
密歇根大学周五发布的调查显示，这些因素导致美国消费者对经济前景的看法在3月份较上月明显恶化。
Higher energy prices tend to disproportionately hurt low-income people and siphon some of their spending from other areas. But Joanne Hsu, the survey director, said sentiment has worsened more abruptly in recent weeks among higher-end consumers, who hold immense wealth in a stock market that is now in or near correction territory.
更高的能源价格通常对低收入群体打击更大，并挤占其在其他方面的支出。但调查负责人Joanne Hsu表示，近期高收入群体的信心下降更为迅速，因为他们的大量财富投资于当前处于或接近回调区间的股市。

 
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  • 本文由 chengsenw 发表于 2026年3月28日 07:40:27
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