Retrofit market stalls as owners wait on rules

LR 劳氏船级社

Shipowners are holding back on engine retrofit decisions despite growing technical readiness, as uncertainty around decarbonisation rules continues to cloud investment plans. That’s the key takeaway from British class society Lloyd’s Register’s latest engine retrofit report, which points to a widening gap between capability and commitment across the sector.尽管技术成熟度不断提高，但由于脱碳规则的不确定性持续给投资计划蒙上阴影，船东们在发动机改造决策上仍犹豫不决。这是英国船级社劳氏船级社最新的发动机改造报告得出的核心结论，该报告指出，整个行业在能力与承诺之间的差距正不断扩大。

While 2025 saw only limited growth in announced retrofit projects, LR said progress behind the scenes has been significant, with engine makers and yards building up the tools, partnerships and capacity needed for a future conversion wave.尽管2025年宣布的改造项目增长有限，但劳氏船级社（LR）表示，幕后的进展意义重大，发动机制造商和造船厂正在积累未来改装浪潮所需的工具、合作伙伴关系和产能。

The main brake remains regulation. Doubts over a global framework to price emissions and incentivise low- and zero-carbon fuels — following delays at the IMO — are making owners cautious about committing to expensive conversions that require long yard stays and upfront capital.主要的制约因素仍然是监管。在国际海事组织（IMO）的相关计划推迟后，人们对全球碳排放定价框架以及激励低碳和零碳燃料的机制存在疑虑，这使得船东在进行成本高昂的改装时持谨慎态度，因为这类改装需要长时间停留在船厂，且需要预先投入大量资金。

LR warned that the longer decisions are delayed, the greater the risk of a bottleneck later this decade, as more conventionally fuelled ships will need retrofitting within a tighter window to meet 2050 targets.劳氏船级社警告称，决策拖延的时间越长，本十年后期出现瓶颈的风险就越大，因为更多使用传统燃料的船舶将需要在更短的时间内进行改装，以实现2050年的目标。

“Owners are preparing, but not fully committing,” the class society said, pointing to the need for a clear regulatory signal to unlock large-scale investment.“船东们正在准备，但尚未完全投入，”该船级社表示，并指出需要明确的监管信号来推动大规模投资。

Despite the slow pace of orders, several high-profile projects have moved the market forward. A methanol retrofit on the COSCO Shipping Libra has shown the technology works on large two-stroke engines, marking a shift from proof of concept to something closer to repeatable solutions.尽管订单进度缓慢，但多个备受瞩目的项目推动了市场的发展。中远海运“天秤座”号进行的甲醇改造表明，该技术适用于大型二冲程发动机，这标志着其从概念验证阶段迈向了更接近可重复应用的解决方案阶段。

Engine makers including Everllence, Wärtsilä and WinGD have also expanded retrofit offerings across methanol, LNG and ethanol, while partnerships with yards are starting to standardise installation work and reduce complexity.包括Everllence、瓦锡兰（Wärtsilä）和WinGD在内的发动机制造商也扩大了甲醇、液化天然气（LNG）和乙醇相关的改装服务，同时与造船厂的合作正开始使安装工作标准化并降低复杂性。

LNG remains in the mix as a lower-cost transition option, backed by established infrastructure and the potential to shift towards bioLNG or synthetic fuels. Meanwhile, ethanol is gaining traction after trials showed it can be blended with methanol and marine fuel without impacting engine performance, opening the door to more flexible fuel strategies.液化天然气（LNG）凭借成熟的基础设施以及向生物液化天然气或合成燃料转型的潜力，仍是一种成本较低的过渡选择。与此同时，试验表明乙醇可与甲醇和船用燃料混合且不影响发动机性能后，乙醇的吸引力正不断增强，这为更灵活的燃料策略打开了大门。

In the near term, owners are opting for so-called “bridge” retrofits — upgrades to engines, propulsion and control systems that cut emissions and improve efficiency without locking in a specific fuel pathway. These projects also compete for yard space and engineering resources, adding another layer of complexity to future conversion planning.短期内，船东们选择了所谓的“过渡性”改装——对发动机、推进系统和控制系统进行升级，以减少排放并提高效率，同时不局限于特定的燃料路径。这些项目还会争夺船厂空间和工程资源，给未来的改造规划又增加了一层复杂性。

LR said the long-term direction is clear, even if the timing is not and that a sizeable retrofit market is coming, driven by the need to decarbonise the existing fleet. The risk for late movers is that once regulation tightens, demand could surge all at once — pushing up costs, stretching yard capacity and leaving some owners scrambling to catch up.LR表示，尽管具体时间尚不明确，但长期方向是清晰的。在现有船队脱碳需求的推动下，一个规模可观的改造市场即将到来。行动迟缓者面临的风险是，一旦监管收紧，需求可能会突然激增——这将推高成本、挤占船厂产能，并导致部分船东仓促追赶。

Mark Penfold, global head of technology – engineering at Lloyd’s Register, said: “A clear and consistent regulatory signal is the single biggest factor that will unlock investment at scale. Without that, the industry will continue to prepare—but not fully commit.劳氏船级社全球技术工程主管马克·彭福尔德表示：“清晰且一致的监管信号是推动大规模投资的首要因素。若缺乏这一点，行业将继续做准备，但不会全力投入。”

“Regardless of the timing of regulation, a substantial retrofit market is inevitable. As the existing fleet remains central to global trade, the ability to convert vessels efficiently will be critical to meeting decarbonisation targets.”“无论监管何时出台，一个规模庞大的改造市场都不可避免。由于现有船队仍是全球贸易的核心，能否高效改装船舶将是实现脱碳目标的关键。”