股市重挫之际,投资者在债券市场难觅避风港Battered by Stock Losses, Investors Find Little Relief in Bonds
The worst rout in Treasurys since April’s tariff chaos is exacerbating strain in financial markets, a stark demonstration of how war’s disruptions to oil flows are leaving investors with few places to shelter.
自4月关税动荡以来最严重的美债抛售正在加剧金融市场压力，这清楚表明战争对石油供应的冲击使投资者几乎无处避险。
The Hormuz blockade has spurred one of the largest oil shocks on record, raising fears of an economic slowdown that have dragged stock indexes to their lowest levels since August. But bonds—often a place of safety in times of market turmoil—have offered no relief, hit by worries that resurgent inflation will keep interest rates higher than expected and undermine the value of their fixed payouts.
霍尔木兹海峡的封锁引发了有记录以来最大的石油冲击之一，加剧了对经济放缓的担忧，并将股指拖至自8月以来的最低水平。然而，通常在市场动荡中被视为避风港的债券却未能提供支撑，因为通胀回升的担忧可能使利率维持在高位，从而削弱债券固定收益的价值。
The resulting market strain has been painful for both investors and the economy. The iShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF, holding a traditional portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, has lost 6.3% since the fighting started in late February.
由此产生的市场压力对投资者和整体经济都造成了冲击。持有60%股票和40%债券传统配置的iShares Core 60/40平衡ETF，自2月下旬冲突开始以来已下跌6.3%。
At the same time, falling bond prices have driven up the yield on the 10-year Treasury note by almost 0.5 percentage point, lifting borrowing costs throughout the economy. Rates on 30-year mortgages jumped to 6.38% last week, reversing a slide that had carried them to their lowest levels since 2022 and threatening the spring home-buying season.
与此同时，债券价格下跌推动10年期美国国债收益率上升近0.5个百分点，从而提高了整个经济体系的借贷成本。30年期抵押贷款利率上周升至6.38%，扭转了此前跌至2022年以来最低水平的趋势，并对春季购房市场构成威胁。
Some fear the selling has taken on a momentum of its own, with the war-fueled market swings forcing hedge funds to shed bonds to cover bets made with borrowed money and other investors hesitant to step in while the threat of further losses linger.
一些人担心，这种抛售已形成自我强化的趋势。战争引发的市场波动迫使对冲基金抛售债券以弥补杠杆交易损失，而其他投资者在仍存在进一步下跌风险的情况下也不愿入场。
“Nobody has an appetite to fade this move because if you did try to fade this move in the past couple weeks, it just continues to go against you,” said Izaac Brook, U.S. rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
RBC资本市场美国利率策略师伊扎克·布鲁克表示：“没有人愿意逆势操作，因为过去几周如果你尝试这样做，市场只会不断与你作对。”
Investors of all stripes were caught off guard by the Iran war, which arrived just as many were growing increasingly bullish on bonds, thanks in part to concerns about potential economic disruptions from artificial intelligence that fueled volatility in the stock market.
伊朗战争让各类投资者措手不及，而在此之前，许多人正逐渐看好债券，这部分是由于对人工智能可能带来的经济扰动的担忧，这些担忧也加剧了股市波动。
On the Friday before the U.S. and Israel first launched a barrage of missiles at Iran, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note had just closed below 4% for the first time since November. Interest-rate futures showed a nearly 80% chance that the Fed would cut rates twice by the end of the year, supporting stocks by offering hope for economic stimulus.
在美国和以色列首次对伊朗发动导弹打击前的那个周五，10年期美国国债收益率刚刚自11月以来首次收于4%以下。利率期货显示，美联储在年底前降息两次的概率接近80%，为股市提供了经济刺激的预期支撑。
When markets reopened on the Sunday evening after the war started, bonds at first extended their rally in a classic flight-to-safety move—only to reverse course within an hour, as oil prices jumped, raising concerns about inflation.
在战争爆发后的周日晚上市场重新开盘时，债券最初因避险需求继续上涨，但随着油价飙升引发通胀担忧，不到一小时便迅速转跌。
Many investors still argue that a protracted war could eventually lead to lower yields, by raising energy prices enough to slow U.S. economic growth, creating even more reason for the Fed to cut rates.
许多投资者仍认为，若战争长期持续，能源价格上涨可能拖累美国经济增长，从而促使美联储降息，最终导致收益率下降。
At least for now, though, that has been a losing argument. Any sign that the war could continue has sparked a knee-jerk rise in yields, especially for shorter-term Treasurys that are particularly sensitive to shifts in the near-term outlook for interest rates.
但至少目前，这一观点尚未奏效。任何战争可能持续的迹象都会引发收益率的快速上升，尤其是对短期利率预期更为敏感的短期国债。
Buttressing that trade, Fed officials have at times sounded more concerned about the inflationary impact of the war than its blow to growth. In a postmeeting press conference on March 18, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that officials couldn’t completely ignore an energy supply shock, even if they usually focus on inflation measures that strip out volatile food and energy categories.
支撑这一走势的是，美联储官员在某些场合对战争带来的通胀影响的关注超过了对经济增长受损的担忧。在3月18日的会后新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，尽管通常关注剔除食品和能源的核心通胀指标，但官员们不能完全忽视能源供应冲击。
As of Friday, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note was 3.915%, according to Tradeweb, up from 3.377% before the war started. The yield on the 10-year note stood at 4.439%.
截至周五，根据Tradeweb数据，2年期美国国债收益率为3.915%，高于战争开始前的3.377%；10年期收益率为4.439%。
Overseas, the threat of higher interest rates is more pronounced. That is in part because the European Central Bank and Bank of England, by statute, are primarily focused on controlling inflation, in contrast to the Fed, which is also tasked with pursuing maximum employment.
在海外市场，加息压力更为明显。这部分是因为欧洲央行和英国央行在法律上主要以控制通胀为目标，而美联储还肩负促进充分就业的职责。
Selling in European government bonds has added to the pressure on U.S. Treasurys, given the close links between the two markets, analysts said.
分析人士表示，由于两个市场联系紧密，欧洲政府债券的抛售进一步加剧了美国国债的压力。
Ritchie Tuazon, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Capital Group, said his team is among those who are bullish on bonds over the long run.
资本集团固定收益投资组合经理里奇·图阿松表示，他的团队属于长期看好债券的投资者之一。
Still, he said, it is much harder to predict what will happen in the near term, with a peace agreement likely leading to a rally in Treasurys and a U.S. ground invasion leading to a further rise in yields.
不过他也指出，短期走势更难预测：如果达成和平协议，国债可能上涨；而如果美国发动地面入侵，则收益率可能进一步上升。
“Our view is that if there is a ground invasion, that would lead to a weak global growth, which would then be supportive for Treasurys,” he said. “But I think the near-term move would be a selloff.”
他说：“我们的观点是，如果发生地面入侵，将导致全球经济增长疲软，从而利好国债。但短期来看，市场可能仍会继续抛售。”
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