[油脂]2026年4月15日全球食用油市场观察

Soybean Complex

The global soybean complex is showing a clear structural divergence between futures and physical markets, driven more by geopolitics and logistics than by pure fundamentals.

CBOT soybean oil continues to trade in a relatively strong range , supported by ongoing energy market volatility, biofuel demand expectations, and uncertainty around global supply chains. Despite broader macro pressure, the board is holding, signaling underlying support.

In contrast, physical FOB markets in South America remain heavily discounted. Argentina FOB is trading around ~$1,165–1,220/MT, while Brazil FOB is at ~$1,180–1,230/MT, with a deep negative basis of roughly -1,400 to -1,500. This reflects weak short-term demand, comfortable supply availability, and slow absorption by key buyers.

Soymeal remains relatively stable, supported by a slower Brazilian harvest pace, some tightness in nearby supply windows, and resilient feed demand. However, upside remains limited unless weather issues or crop risks intensify. China’s soybean imports reached 24.5 MMT in Q1 2026, up 2.1 MMT YoY, signaling a clear return of demand.

Sunflower Oil

Sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea region (primarily Ukraine and Russia) totaled ~ 11.6 MMT in January–March 2026, down from roughly 13.0 MMT a year earlier. Ukraine’s SFO exports in the current season (September – March) have declined to the lowest level of the past decade. The country still has ~ 3 M tons of SFS unshared.

India, the key buyer, reduced imports to approximately 3.63 MMT — down sharply from about 7.55 MMT last year. Current India offers of around $1,455/MT are facing weak demand. Additional pressure comes from logistical risks: drone strikes on port infrastructure in the Odesa region damaged storage facilities and caused a vegetable oil spill.

On a CIF Mersin basis, the market remains in a standoff, with sellers at $1,400–1,410/MT and buyers around $1,383–1,385/MT. Turkey’s TMO tender for 12,000 MT confirms ongoing demand, with achieved prices above the previous tender range of ~$1,336–1,344/MT.

🇦🇷 Argentina & 🇪🇺 Europe

Argentina’s sunflower crop is expected to surpass 6.5 MMT, with harvesting progressing faster than last year. As of end-March, around 5.1 MMT has already been harvested, bringing additional supply to the market. New-crop Argentine offers are notably lower at $1,285–1,300/MT, creating a clear price gap versus other origins.

The strengthening Russian ruble is likely to slow sunflower oil exports, reducing competitiveness and discouraging aggressive selling. At the same time, European-origin SFO continues to trade at a significant premium near $1,470–1,485/MT, supported by tighter local availability and higher logistical costs.

Palm Oil

Palm oil continues to trade at a meaningful discount to sunflower oil .